Study On The Fore-warning Management System Of Freeway Catastrophe

Traffic safety and disaster against is the precondition of different transportation method. This thesis tries to discuss the freeway that is more complex in traffic areas as to represent, and to investigate the traffic disaster regulation to prevent the mechanism with the forewarning.It is the certain trend of modern economy to develop freeway. By the end of 2002, our country's freeway mileage has come to over 2.52 million kilometers. Freeway as the main skeleton of highway net covering the whole country is coming into being gradually. It has partial improved the living standard of the mass greatly. With the development of freeway, the amount of automobile is increased quickly. Although the government has constructed vast of infrastructure the cramped, the traffic safety conditions are still very serious. Freeway traffic brings convenience to people. At the same time it takes negative effects which are traffic accident, environment pollution, etc. The freeway calamity is not only touching on the normal work of motorway but also making the mass suffered great loss lives and possessions.This paper is supported by the NSFC: "the study on the transportation calamity early-warning management system" . Freeway calamity is this thesis' studying object. From the point of traffic system and in the sense of comprehensive management about society, it studied the basic reason of traffic calamity, established freeway forewarning system which can forewarn and control traffic calamity. This thesis also studied the objective regularity which happened in traffic calamity and the converted way concerned to normal traffic condition. It came up with the reason of keep traffic in the state of safe and normal for a long time. This has a direct operation value preventing traffic calamity happen and dealing with traffic calamity in involved traffic conditions. It has a real meaning on constructing modern operation management system and improving management level of freeway.The main work and conclusions of this paper followed as below:(1) Master the relational study from all over the world. The research of* This paper is supported by the NSFC: "the study on the transportation calamity early-warning management system" (No.79590111)traffic calamity forewarning from viewpoint on the catastrophe and social management is few.(2) Based on the questionnaire investigation from condition of freeway calamity, drivers, vehicles, freeway and management, it systematically makes a mechanism analysis about causes of formation of freeway disasters, and sets up the SD model to help analysis.(3) Using the forewarning management theory, the forewarning management system of freeway catastrophe is set up. That is the function and aim. the working content, operation pattern, organization system, work program and the mode of the FMSFC (Forewarning Management System of Freeway Catastrophe).(4) Based on the four kinds of freeway catastrophe, this paper sets up three levels evaluate index system. Then it use artificial neural net to fore case data, use confuse methods to evaluate the index system.(5) Finally, with the help of Access, Excel and VB6.0, the software of the FMSFC is programmed. By this way, this paper tries to offer an operated and useful method to forewarning freeway catastrophe or reducing the loss of freeway catastrophe.