Research On Optimal Operation Of Three Gorges Reservoir

Based on the Three Gorges Reservior, according to the demand of its functions, this paper studies how to get the hydropower capacity rightly,advance the ability of melody apex of power station, and exert the great potential of power station. The main achievements are listed as follows:(1) With the analysis method on chaos and statistic theory, The analysis model of maximum possible forecast time of Changjiang River and maximum bed dimension of chaos system. According to the date of water, the paper confirm that the max forecast time of enter reservoir pathway flow is 20 months, and the gene of influence is no more than 12.(2) Based on theory of atmosphere circumfluence, get across of analyzing the cause pathway flow, the paper founds middle-long time forecast model. According forecast effect, we can see that forecast precision and forecast error are difficult to meet require of project. Getting across of analyzing, we can see that the control area are great, the pertinence is difference and affect factors are more, the middle-long time forecast of Three Gorges must consider rainfall, atmosphere circumfluence, runoff of submit control-stop, and so on. As long as so, we can meet the require of water forecast.(3) Based on generate electricity time of Three Gorges reservoir, the paper found math model of optimize dynamic water level, get across Monte Carlo test , the paper gained near condition of this model, finally, using decision variable more goals dynamic programming means. Validating and comparing it to genetic algorithm, we can see it is efficient. at the same time, get across dynamic optimize design of generate electricity time of Three Gorges reservoir, under ensuring the safety of reservoir, the benefit of prevent or control flood and generate electricity will muse be advanced distinctly.(4) Analyses loading status of middle china and east china, based on need of electricity net and characteristic of water and electricity station, found running pattern of Three Gorges reservoir. Under precondition of meeting riverway shipping, study capability of water and electricity station under differ condition, and discard water losing under differ attemper pattern, passing study, we can gain that with reason, the range of Three Gorges reservoir is 6,000～8,000 MW.(5) Analyses characteristic of short time optimize operation characteristic of step electricity stop of Three Gorges——Ge Zhou Ba, found step electricity stop day optimize operation model, consider plenty current, unit and other many condition, we can see that generate electricity capacity of per day is direct proportion to flux. In course of operation, water level is wave with contribute, but water level must meet require of prevent or control flood and ship, aim at operation of melody apex, contribute change is not too more when flux less than 17,000m3/s, contribute is minishing to almost zero when flux more than 17,000m3/s.