The Upper Reach Of The Minjiang River Runoff Analysis And Its Forecast

Water resources system and hydro-environment are vast, variant and nonlinear energy-system. The variance of runoff, which is main factor in the system and dominants the variance of the whole system, has important effects on social economy and environment of water resources of the district. Because of the synthetic influence of weather, geography and human-made development actions, runoff of the The Upper Reach of the Minjiang River basin is complicated, multi-time-scale dependent, random, discontinuous, and non-linear etc. Traditional methods of runoff analysis and prediction are difficult to get satisfactory results and facing challenges. For the integrated management and sustainable development of the The Upper Reach of the Minjiang River basin, many effects have been made to analyze its runoff characteristic and carry out its runoff forecast, including many domestic and international research programs. The Upper Reach of the Minjiang River research is becoming one of the typical study basins in water science.This thesis, under the support of Chinese National basic research development planning"973"(NO.2003CB415202), , and Doujiang Weir irrigation areas optimal allocation of water resources and adjusting the management study (NO.04H454), applies modern new theories (such as stochastic theory, wavelet transformation, artificial nerve network theory) and traditional methods, to systematically study the...