Upper Yangtze River Annual Runoff Analysis And Its Forecast

The upper basin of Yangtze River is broad and stride over various natures geography environment, suffering the influence that comes from the different climatic zone, spectacular and changeable scene inside the river valley, the hydrology phenomenon is complex. At the east are Hubei and Hunan, at the south are the autonomous region of Guangxi Chuang, Laos and Vietnam, at the west are the Qingzhang plateau and Burma, at the north are Shangxi, Gansu and Qinghai. Because of not clear knowing the hydrology process and lacking of the datum which influencing the hydrology process, it is hard to describe completely each hydrology process using the mathematics physics method up to now. In the past, a single hydrology station or traditional methods of runoff analysis and forecast are used to research the runoff characteristic, but these methods are difficult to get satisfactory results and facing challenges. For breaking through the predicament, new theories and methods must be added into continuously, at the same time, different methods must be put together to research systematically the whole basin.This thesis, under the support of national foundation research development plans (NO.2003CB415202-1), on the base of the absorbing the past results and using modern new theories (such as chaos, wavelet transformation, artificial nerve network and approximate entropy) and traditional methods, making use of 4 representatives stations'more than 100 years runoff datum to study systematically the variant characteristic (such as period, relativity, chaos, complexity and characteristic of sudden-change) of runoff for the upper Yangtze River. Discuss the de-noising rule of...