Study On The Updating Control And Management Of Water Right Of Tarim River Basin

According to the present practical situation of water resources management ofTarim River Basin, the updating control and management of water right based on theinitial water right allocation of Tarim River Basin is studied in this dissertation.Firstly, the water right management present state and advance is reviewed, theexisting problems of water resources in Tarim River Basin are analyzed, and theimportance and urgency of putting water management right into effect andcontrolling the water right is expatiated on.Secondly, the representation of the runoff sample of Tarim River's mainhydrological stations is analyzed. The temporal pattern of runoff is studied, andcalculate reckons the statistical characteristic of main hydrological stations of TarimRiver using P-â…¢optimizing curve.Thirdly, according to the fact of Tarim River runoff, puts forward a newforecasting model which named IARIMA(Integrative AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average) for runoff forecasting and use it to building theannual runoff forecasting. Making use of Tarim Rive Xie Hela hydrological station'historical data, we check up the IARIMA model and get the promising result.Fourthly, utilizing the optimizing characteristics of Genetic Algorithmimproves the Artificial Neural Network and builds the GA-ANN forecasting model.Selecting forecasting factor by means of multiple test calculating, the flood season,month and a period of ten days natural runoff of Tarim River source flow isforecasted and the result is checked.Fifthly, based on the property right theory and the initial water right allocationof Tarim River Basin, the "day controlling, a period of ten days adjustment, monthaccounting, quarter regulation, annual balance" four grades updating water rightmanagement system is built. The emergency water right based on the updating waterright and its employ procedure is brought forward.Sixthly, we can get the conclusion which the updating water right management system is able to make every district, department and water user answer for himselfso the situation of above limitation amount water was reduced or avoid throughsumming up of the updating water right practice of Tarim River Basin. Theexperience has proved that the updating water right is very fit for Tarim River Basin.Lastly, combining the theory and the application research results, theconclusion and the questions need to be studied deeply are presented.