Research On Socio-economic Water Cycle In Tarim River Basin Based On Input-output Model

Under the comprehensive influence of current climatic conditions and human activities etc, the tarim river basin water resources shortage is very prominent,water resources conflict is increasing. Impact on ecological environment protection and sustainable development of economic society in the Tarim River basin. Based on this,the inevitable requirement in the tarim river basin is managing the water resources reasonably and effectively,and solving the ecological environment problems caused by water.The purpose is to promote coordinated development of economic society- water resource- ecological environment system in the Tarim River basin.Virtual water theory is a hot spot theory in socio-economic water cycle,and also a new idea of ensuring water security and water resources management.This paper based on the socio-economic water cycle and virtual water theory, quantitative analysis the virtual water flow between industry and region using Single regional input-output model(SRIO) and Multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)respectively in the Tarim river basin.At the same time,comprehensive analysis the basic framework of socio-economic water cycle between industry and region,the migration process of industry, the quantity of water resouce flow and the space distribution in regional, and then we can get the number correlation graph of socio-economic water cycle in the tarim river basin. On this basis, we can analyse the key problems of restricting water resources management in the Tarim river basin sustainable development process, and clear the industrial strategy, development direction and the optimizing strategy of agricultural and industrial structure in Tarim river basin.The paper is aimed at providing reference for ecological environment protection and utilization of water resources reasonably in arid areas, and ensuring development between economic society and ecological environment harmonious and orderly in the tarim river basin.The main conclusions as follows:(1) The water resource utilization of industry department is very unbalanced in Tarim river basin,the agriculture water takes up more than 98% of the total water, agriculture is the main sector of water consumption directly, however, it is still output a large quantity of virtual water, it will increase thecontradiction between supply and demand of water resources;(2) In virtual water transfer of industry, most of agricultural water is transferred to the food industry(20.3a hundred million m~3) and textile industry(17 a hundred million m~3), while food industry output a part of water to other regions, which comes from agricultural sector;(3)The main output sectors of virtual water are agriculture,coal mining and processing, oil and gas, food industry and chemical industry, and the complete virtual water net output sector is oil and gas,its virtual water output can not be ignored;(4)The main input sectors of virtual water are machinery and equipment industry,wholesale and retail industry and textile industry, the development level of machinery equipment products and manufacturing products is low, the self-sufficiency rate of daily necessities is insufficient, it is need to import from other provinces;(5) In virtual water transfer of regions, the Tarim river basin output a large quantity of virtual water to Shandong province, as well as Shanghai, Henan, Jiangsu, Tianjin and other provinces, the water output pattern mainly reflects in eastern coastal areas,which the water is relatively rich,this will increase the pressure of water resources and water environment further.Finally, the article briefly analyses the internal mechanism of socio-economic water cycle in Tarim river basin,which lies in the internal development problem of different industry sectors, for this problem,we put forward the control ways and strategies of agriculture and industrial water in the Tarim river basin. Moreover,we put forward the corresponding industry development way according to the resources endowment condition of the five province in Tarim river basin.