The Research On Earthquake Damage Prediction Of Building Stock And The Discussion Of Direct Economic Loss Of Infrastructure

The seismic damage prediction for building structure is that the damage degree of the building structure is predicted when one region or city experienced a certain intensity earthquake. The seismic behavior of each kind of building is correctly and reasonably analyzed, and the damage degree is appropriately estimated. Then its existing weak links is presented. Therefore the seismic performance of building is enhanced. It is an effective way of reducing earthquake disaster in city. But because our country vast in territory, it is a bigger difference in those respects such as building structure type, the earthquake resistance performance and the quantity for each city. The seismic damage matrixes of building group from actual earthquakes or damage prediction don't meet the demand of the future earthquake loss evaluation for different region. At the same time, the quick construction of infrastructure engineering in the cities and villages, the infrastructure project quantity suddenly increases. When the earthquake occurs, the infrastructure engineering economic loss would be more serious. So it is the urgent problem waiting to be solved that how to estimate the economic loss of infrastructure engineering. The paper has made some researches on the approach of earthquake damage prediction of buiding stock and the economic loss evaluation of infrastructure engineering. The main works of the paper are summarized as below:1) The monomer sample database which is used for earthquake damage prediction of building stock is established.The earthquake damage prediction datas of a great lot of monomer buildings are collected. These datas include structure type, anti-seismic level, foundation form, exsiting status, damage degree under each intensites and so on. The monomer sample database is established. The earthquake destrucion ratio of each building under different intensity from Tangshan earthquake, Haicheng earthquake is collected. The damage prediction matrixes of each structure type from different cities of which the earthquake damage prediction have been done are collected. And the damage matrixes database is obtained.2) An approach for earthquake damage prediction of building stock based on existing vulnerability matrices.Through the analysis summary of earthquake damage, the main characteristic factors that represent the seismic ability properties of building stock is considered such as construction age, the location condition, anti-seismic level, exsiting status and so on. Each factor of the classification element makes the different influence to the known matrix and shares the unique value. The building stock of the study region is compared with the sample cell of existing matrix.Then the closeness degree of the predicted matrix versus the known matrix is calculated. Finally the predicted matrix is gained by multifactor weighed.3) The research on making empirical earthquake damage matrix complete In recent years, several big earthquakes occurred in our country. And some is in low intensity area. It is important that how to evaluate the earthquake resistance ability of building stock in earthquake-affected area. The index corresponding to each damage level is taken as a continual random variable. And the index probability distribution is fitted with Beta probability density distribution function. Surposing the expected value rate and the variance rate of the standard matrix is the same as that of some intensity versus the next intensity. So the expected value and variance of index under other intensity are given. Finally the probability value of each damage level is obtained using Beta distribution.4) The regression relation of the direct economic loss of the infrastructure engineering with that of building stockAccording to the significant earthquake disaster loss data for nearly more than ten years and the loss data of earthquake damage prediction, the relation of the direct economic loss of the infrastructure engineering with that of building stock is given by use of regression analysis. And the model suitable for the earthquake direct economic loss evaluation is established.5) The application of the earthquake damage prediction approach of building stockBy use of the research approach, the software programme used for the building vulnerability prediction is completed based on the Arcgis9.0 platform. And the software is applied to the earthquake damage predicition of Guangdong Province, Shandong Province, Yunnan Province and Gansu Province.. Then the distribution map of economic loss and that of personnel casualty have been drawn up.