Optimal Regulation And Risk Analysis Of Hydropower In The Power Market Environment

The reform of the power market of our country is a perennial process of exploration. The power market should be built stage by stage. It should be explored, diversified and adjusted continuously according to the current situation and the available infrastructures. To abide by the energy policy of the state, increase the usage of hydropower and construct an economizing-resource society, it is necessary to engage us actively in studying and establishing policies in favor of the sustainable development of hydropower. Such policies may involve market rales, pricing mechanisms, and output quotas, etc. At the same time, we should mend our pace to research on the on-grid bidding of hydropower, and prepare for the forthcoming competition. This thesis focuses on the mode of on-grid bidding, the optimal operation mode, and the integrated risk analysis of hydropower. The research includs: 1) Economics theories of generation market competitions, 2) Risk decision-making theories and risk analysis methodologies, 3) Tow-part tariff system with dynamic ancillary capacities, 4) Standardized projects of hydro-accessing to the power market, 5) Application of dynamic coherent risk measure to the distribution of power generation in time and space.Firstly, we review the technical and economic aspects of the on-grid bidding of hydropower. We also review the current status of the research on its standardized schemes, operation modes and risk evasion in domestic and overseas literatures. This thesis's meaning and the main content are summarized.Secondly, the competitiveness of hydro-corporations' in the power market is analyzed, from a contemporary economics and management theories perspective. This provides the concept and academic base of evaluating the market competitiveness. Some theories and methods, such as pricing theory, cost and profit conspectuses of economics, decision-making theory of operations research, and risk analysis method of finance, are introduced. These methods and theories serve as cornerstones for developing the generation market and studying and actualizing hydropower competition.Thirdly, generation ancillary services are important ways to ensure that power grids operate safely and steadily. This paper summarizes the payment means, by which generation ancillary services are paid in the current on-grid bidding mode, and proposes a novel two-part tariff system with dynamic ancillary capacities, which are classified by the units' commitments or functions. Each dynamic ancillary capacity is traded by different means and paid at a different price. The exchanging flatform, the pricing method, the settlement price mechanism, the trading flow and the security and economy for power systems, reserve ancillary service for instance, are expatiated. The index quantization, the cost analysis and the pricing of the other generation ancillary services, such as AGC, the reactive power and the black start, are surveyed. The improved two-part tariff can compensate properly the ancillary services that hydro-units take, reflect the regulative capability and the general utilization, decrease the electricity purchasing cost, and greatly facilitate the optimal deployment of electric power resources.Fourthly, hydro-corporations can sell or purchase the generation rights to hedge against the risk of lacking inflow in dry period or discarding water in high-water period. This ensures the balance of supplies and demands in the market, and realizes the maximization of social general utilization. Taking fluctuating prices as an uncertainty and the conditional value at risk (CVaR) a risk measurement index, a combined bidding model for single-period generation rights trade is built. The model makes generators gain more by coordinating profits and risks of the bidding project, and, meanwhile, optimize generation shares in different venture attitudes or in different market conditions. Consequently risks existing in other markets are evaded. Power producers can use the proposed model as a reference for trading the generation rights.Finally, the optimal regulations of hydropower in short time and in mid-long time are discussed in this paper. The multi-period portfolio strategy is a dynamic optimal problem, i.e., a process of decision-making with multi-period risks, whose risks should be measured by a dynamic index accordingly. This paper considers the long-term impact of risks on the fluctuation of future yields, acts the quantile on the static coherent risk measure to reflect the dynamic characteristic of multi-period risks, proposes a novel dynamic coherent risk measure, and minimizes the weighted sum of the absolute deviation of each CVaR to build a model, which can be applied to both the time and space distributions of power generation with risk constraints. The model is also extended to. analyze various marketing risks, which allows generators to adjust the change of uncertainties confronted in the course of the on-grid bidding, such as prices, inflows and demands.In summary, hydro-corporations should consider synthetically the economic and the technical characteristic of hydropower, and make rational standardized projects and optimal operation modes, which is worth exploring during their on-grid bidding. This paper proposes project designs or mathematical models on the mode of on-grid bidding, the settlement price mechanism for auction transaction, the generation rights trade, and the optimal short-term and mid-long-term regulation of hydropower. Models are simulated and results are analyzed. The study has directive significances and practical values on hydro-corporations' accessing the power market.