The Theoretics Modeling And Control Optimization Of Crisis Treatment For Air Traffic Flow Management System

With the great development of aviation transportation, flow management becomes more and more important in the field of aviation safety. The paper mainly discussed the crisis management problem in the air traffic flow management system. Based on the analysis of the air traffic management system home and abroad, we construct the crisis management system for the collaborative flow management system in our country.The main work of this thesis are:Combining with the grey forecasting theory, BP Neural Net and RBF Neural Net, we set up the crisis forecasting model and probe into the theory and method for the multilayer integrated evaluation. The theory system of the crisis management was enriched by introduced the risk forecast and alarm management theory and the collaborative decision making theory.The cause of the air traffic accident and the crisis problem of the air traffic flow management system were analyzed. Combining with the experience of the developed countries in the flow management system, we put forward the universal crisis management method for the collaborative traffic flow management system. The IDEF system analysis method has been used and the management process for the crisis problem has been analyzed and modeled systemic. The work flow for the crisis management has been optimized and the data of the each flow phase has been defined.The algorithm for the crisis management in the air traffic flow management system was designed used by the slot allocation algorithm and the slot compression algorithm, and the input and output parameters for the algorithms were designed. The changing rule of the flight time data in the algorithm was analyzed thoroughly. Based on the principle of the design, combined with the experience from the developed countries, we set up the performance index system for the crisis management system in the air traffic flow management system. The hiberarchy of the index system was analyzed, and the meanings of each supervise field and supervise factor have been put forward. The judging index for the air traffic congestion and its application were put up.On the basis of the analysis of the crisis problem and the study of the theory, we put up the resolving scheme for the crisis management in the air traffic flow management system, which including: the design of the organization structure for the flow management, the plan of the organization inner seat and the solving scheme and program for the crisis problem. Integrated with the practice of the project, we developed the program for the crisis management system.