The Management Theory And Methods Of Flood Control Operation For Mixed Reservoirs

Reservoir, which is very important for regulating the discharge flow, cutting the flood peek, and alleviating the flood loss, is the effective engineering measures for development and management of river. In recent years, the water shortage and flood disaster usually take place in china. The reservoir ecological regulation which used for protecting the ecological environment is increasingly attracted the public's attention. Nowadays flood control operation is difficult to meet the needs of all aspects. Therefore it is meaningful to study the management theory of flood control operation for mixed reservoirs for sustainable utilization of water resources, reducing the natural disaster and promoting the coordinated development of social, economic, and ecology. Based on the relationships of flood forecasting and the management of flood operation, optimization problems, risk analysis, scheme decision, ecological regulation, etc. of the mixed reservoirs are further discussed through intelligent algorithms, risk analysis theory, extension theory and other methods in this paper. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The flood forecasting techniques and parameter optimization method are improved. First this thesis analyses flood cause, hydrological model and parameter optimization method. In accordance with the above theory, flow calculus coefficient is optimized among the parameter estimation problem of Muskingum model by introducing the principle of minimizing the sum of absolute residuals. Considering the principle and the parameter characteristics of genetic algorithm, the Muskingum model parameter estimation adaptive accelerating genetic algorithm is presented in this paper.(2) Established the model and method of flood control operation for mixed reservoirs. This paper sums up the single-objective model of flood control operation for single reservoir and multi-objective model for cascade reservoir. Taking the important of flood control points and operation mode of cascade reservoir into account, Multi-objective integrated optimization model of flood operation management is found. The target of this is the maximum flow minimum of downstream control points and the maximum discharge flow minimum. NSGA-â…¡is adopted to solve the above model. The effectiveness such as receiving multi-group non-inferior solution is verified by practical application. Therefore, this model provides a new idea and sufficient basis for flood control operation of mixed reservoirs.(3)The effective method to solve the risk analysis of the management of flood control operation for mixed reservoirs is proposed. Synthetically considering the downstream flood control safety and flood risk, management risk analysis model of flood control operation for mixed reservoirs is established. Monte Carlo simulation in combination with TOPSIS is used to solve the model and provides an effective method for risk analysis by describing the risk characteristics of the flood control system.(4) Developping the multi-objective decision theory and method for management of mixed reservoirs'flood control operation. Paper first discusses the existing variety of evaluation methods. Then, the information entropy is introduced to weight calculation. And this scheme objectively reflects the contribution for decision-making when the specific data is collected. Based on the extension theory, evaluation method for flood control operation is established. This method provides the novel assessment analysis opinion for management of flood control operation.(5) Discussing the ecological regulation and program optimization of mixed reservoirs. A multi-objective optimal operation model which is used to balance economic, social and environmental benefits is founded. It can also improve the efficiency and provide accurate and scientific information for the reservoir. At the same time, from the main body, the subject of the transaction, as well as trading standards and management point of view, a preliminary design about the river system is conducted. And the main trading principles are analyzed. Combined with the sewage in the water market trading practice, this chapter proposes a negotiation model which is based on the transaction model, and gives the optimal solution under various circumstances.(6) Constructing the management decision support system of flood control operation for mixed reservoirs. This paper designs the main function for embedded module which includes watershed hydrological model, flood control model, data processing model, etc.