Study On Flood Control Risk Decision Of Reservoirs In The Lower Reaches Of Luanhe River Basin

Floods and floods in China are frequent and high-risk,and the flood control task is very heavy.The reservoir is one of the most common and important water conservancy projects to control floods,flood control and disaster reduction.Therefore,how to use the characteristics of reservoirs and reservoirs to optimize flood control and ensure the flood control The flood control safety of the reservoir itself and its protective objects,reducing or avoiding flood damage,is an important and practical issue that deserves in-depth study.In this paper,the Panjiakou Reservoir,Daheiting Reservoir and Taolinkou Reservoir in the lower reaches of the Luanhe River Basin are used to study the flood control risk optimization of reservoirs,and the flood control risk optimization scheduling model based on fuzzy optimization technology is established to calculate the risk rate of different dispatching schemes..The main research contents are as follows:(1)Fully analyze the flood control standards and targets of the buildings in the lower reaches of the Luanhe River Basin,Panjiakou Reservoir,Daheiting Reservoir and Taolinkou Reservoir.According to the maximum discharge amount,the highest flood level,the flood control water level,the flood control object and its own flood control risk,the differential evolution algorithm is used to obtain the joint scheduling scheme of the reservoir group.(2)The calculation method of flood control risk dispatching for reservoirs is determined.The event tree analysis method is used to obtain four risk factors in reservoir flood control risk dispatching,namely:inflow flood process,water level-reservoir relationship,uncertainty of discharge capacity and The uncertainty risk rate of flood control rules and operation management,and the corresponding probability distribution is analyzed by Monte Carlo method.(3)Based on the fuzzy optimization model technology and the above four risk factors,a flood control risk optimization scheduling model for reservoirs was established.Combined with the actual situation of Panjiakou Reservoir,Daheiting Reservoir and Taolinkou Reservoir,the reasonable operation plan of the reservoir group is selected from the overall perspective,and the optimal scheduling is obtained,thus reducing the flood damage.In this paper,the optimal flood control risk management of reservoirs is studied.The optimal scheme for floods in 10 years is scheme 25,the maximum discharge:Panjiakou is1229.62m~3/s,Daheiting is 1516.88m~3/s,Taolinkou It is 1849.71m~3/s;the optimal plan for the flood in 20 years is Scheme 18,the maximum discharge:Panjiakou is 2055.15m~3/s,Daheiting is 2783.28m~3/s,Taolinkou is 3953.74m~3/s.