Study On Dynamic Simulation Model Of Carbon Storage Of Forest Vegetation In Liaoning Province

The global climate change has seriously impacted the living environment and sustainable development of human-being society. Forest plays a very important role on addressing mitigation climate change. Forest ecological system is not only the largest carbon storage pool, but also plays a key function on global carbon circulation and a fundamental base on sustaining carbon balance in the world.On the base of domestic and overseas scholars' research status and new progresses on carbon storage of forest vegetation and System Dynamics, this study explores how to calculate carbon storage of forestation activities (projects) which directly influence on carbon storage of forest vegetation, that puts forward carbon accounting programs and methods, gives some reference numerical values of forest carbon density in different age groups for Liaoning province after analyzing three papers about research on carbon storage and density of forest vegetation by the use of forest resources inventory data in China. Based on the forest resource structures and characteristics, the flowchart is established by the use of reason-effect relationship and circulation relationship of System Dynamics, which reflects overall dynamic change of carbon storage of forest vegetation. Forest land dynamic flowchart, dynamic flowchart of forest resource volume and growth, dynamic flowchart of logging volume and dynamic flowchart of carbon stocks are set up on the base of forest resource structure. According to comprehensive dynamic flowchart of forest management, forest resource structure and carbon storage of forest vegetation, Dynamic Simulation Model of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province is established by adopting modern dynamic simulation software-Vensim in the world. This thesis simulates and analyzes changeable trends of carbon storage of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in the future by means of Dynamic Simulation Models. The conclusions are as follows:(1)At the beginning of the forestation, the increment of carbon storage of forest vegetation should be taken as a main target of forestation activities (projects). At the start of forestation activities, forest carbon accounting and surveying methods are used to appraise carbon storage ability of forestation project. In order to ensure absorption carbon potential of forestation project, increase carbon storage ability and improve forest carbon stocks, forestation tree species will be selected and implementation scheme should be set.(2)Theory and methods of System Dynamics are used to analyze forest resource structure and establish a forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart. The variables and auxiliary variables are used to describe forest structure and management status. The level variable and rate variable are used to reflect forest structure dynamic status. Under the different forestation plans and management measures, the model simulates many variable results of different forest resource structures and forest carbon stocks. These results are useful for policy makers to make high efficient forest resource management schemes.(3)Forest resource dynamic simulation flowchart is created, forest carbon stock simulation model established and some models listed by the use of Vensim software. Based on the analysis of forest resources and investigation, some management schemes are put forward. Three typical schemes are selected. The simulation results show:â‘ The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 128 million tons in 2010 and 150 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under present management scheme, respectively increases 4.92%, 22.95%.â‘¡The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 137 million tons in 2010 and 159 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under development scheme, respectively increases 12.29%, 30.33%.â‘¢The carbon storage of vegetation would reach 144 million tons in 2010 and 171 million tons in 2035 from 122 million tons in 2005 under strategic scheme, respectively increases 18.03%,40.6%.Liaoning province could realize 159 million tons of carbon storage of forest vegetation in 2035 if it adopt development scheme to make middle or long time plan by the hard work.(4)The model is used to simulate how degree carbon storage of forest vegetation is sensitive to carbon density. The results show that the carbon storage of forest vegetation is greatly sensitive to carbon density. In order to increase the carbon storage of forest vegetation in the future, Liaoning province should pay more attention to how improve the carbon density in different age groups. In other words, the carbon storage of forest vegetation greatly increases though the carbon density rises a little.(5)This model is used to simulate carbon storages of forest vegetation in Liaoning province and its 14 cities in 2010-2035. The simulation results express that the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Fushun, Dandong and Benxi city is approximate 50 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Tieling, Chaoyang city is about 20 percent of that of Liaoning province, the carbon storage of forest vegetation in Dalian, Anshan, and Hulutao and other 6 cities is approximate 32.14 percent of that of Liaoning province; The allocation of forest carbon stocks is various in the different city. The difference among them is huge.(6)The dynamic simulation models of carbon storage of forest vegetation would be widely used in different regions (such as county, city, province and country) if the input data in the simulation model be replaced by their data. In order to establish a fundamental base for stimulating efficient management programs on carbon storage of forest vegetation, dynamic changeable situations of carbon storage of forest vegetation are simulated, researched and explored.