Risk Analysis Methodology And Safety Management On Transgenic Crops

Risk analysis of transgenic organisms is the most important step to understand their risks and facilitate decision making. Establishment of a comprehensive and reliable risk identification method is the core of risk analysis. However, due to the complexity of biological systems, the cognitive limitatin, deficient of experimental data as well as scale and time constraints, it is still difficult to judge the risk of transgenic crops and the reliability and accuracy of assessment conclusions. In addition, it is not possible currently to rely on laboratory conditions, or through a field survey approach to understand the intensive nature when foreign genes transformed into a variety of complex ecosystems, and the potential temporal and spatial dynamics and the consequences caused by dynamic interactions. Therefore, in-depth understanding of the principles of risk analysis of transgenic crops as well as further research and innovation in estblishment of reliable risk analysis approach are of great significance.In this paper, a comprehensive review has been addressed on the theoretical basis of risk, the framework, content, principles and common methods of current risk analysis of transgenic crops, and the problems and solutions to a reliable risk analysis methodology have been deeply discussed. Strategies and recommendations have also been provided based on throughfall discussion of various international and national risk management frameworks and policies. The main findings include:1. Establishment of a hierarchical holographic model for transgenic crops risk analysis.This study has established a hierarchical holographic model that contains eight sub-systems of an entire ecosystem, which represented the possible interactions and teir effects between/on biological, chemical, physical and human factors and process during environmental release of transgenic crops.1412 interactions were determined, among which 168 risky hazards in 12 categories were indentfied, including 140 determined risks and 28 risk hazards may occur as adverse risks or not depend on environmental conditions or agricultural practices.2. Establishment of a cellular automaton model based transgenic crops risk analysis method.In this paper, a simple subsystem contains only four species:crop, target pest, non-target pest and enemy insect, and a three layer arrangement of L×L stochastic cellular automata with a periodic boundary were established. By defining the structure of individual species and their interspecies interactions, and according to the time and space simulation rules, CA simulation showed abundant and sufficient complexity in population assembly and densities, suggesting a prospective application in ecological risk assessment of transgenic crops.3. Establishment of a fault tree analysis (FTA) model on laboratory biological risks appears in transgenic crops R & D.This study constructed a fault tree of transgenic crops laboratory biological risks with 17 intermediate events and 30 basal events. Based on the rules of Boolean algebra, a total of 106 least cut sets obtained. According to the occurrence frequency of each basal event in 106 sets, their degree of importance were deduced, which may suggest the causes of biological risks and failures in transgenic crops laboratory; 33 least path sets obtained, and risk control measurements were suggested.4. Suggestions provided to China's transgenic crops biosafety managementChina has chosen a very cautious regulatory system on transgenic crops and the biosafety assessemnt system has made some progress. However, there are still problems need to be resolved, which are:Regulatory system needs to be improved; Management system is incomplete; Management procedures are not unified; Risk analysis of transgenic crops is lagging behind the technological developments and the investment and talents in risk analysis are shortage; Inadequate management in GM crops agricultural practices and lack of tracing; Limited risk communication. The following recommendations have also been provided:To actively promote transgenic safety legislation; Pay more attentions to risk analysis on transgenic crops; Gradually and orderly development and application of transgenic technology based on precautionary principle; Put efforts to biodiversity conservation and the protection of national germplasm resources and food security; Protect the interests of farmers; Strengthen the public education and public participation to achieve better undsertand of transgenic technology and products.The methods established in this study contributed to an in-depth understanding and recognition of risks related to transgenic crops, which might be helpful to avoid prejudice and blind optimism, and facilitate the development of GM technology, environmental and ecological health and sustainable development.