Research On Top Management Background Characteristics Influence Earnings Forecasts Disclosure Of Chinese Listed Companies

As an important way of information disclosure, management of listed company earnings forecast more and more attract investors’ attention. Compared with the traditional disclosure, earnings forecast have proactive and predictive characteristics, which can make up for the lack of historical information and improve the usefulness of financial information.As an developed market economy countries, America has established a relatively perfect predictive information disclosure system, especially the management earnings forecasts have become an important tool for alleviate the information asymmetry between investors and company management. At the same time, in our country earnings forecast disclosure system has established implementation since1998which is still in continuously improving and perfecting. Because Earnings forecast system is not perfect, and predicting is uncertainty of itself, that make listed companies management lots of manipulate space left. By studying the perfonnance forecast, it has important significance for investors to understand the operating performance of listed companies and market regulators for effective market management.At present, the management earnings forecast of listed company disclosure existence big difference, including the management earnings forecast disclosure motivation and earnings forecast disclosure strategies. First of all, for earnings forecast disclosure motivation, on the one hand, there are many listed companies management initiative predictive information disclosure, but others choose not to disclose. Second, the management of listed company often selective disclosure earnings forecast, such as accuracy, precision, and timeliness of the disclosure characteristics. To a certain extent, these differences has affected the investor’s understanding of disclosure information, even mislead investors’ decision-making. So the theory and practice, including investors, who are very concerned about reason for the difference between the management earnings forecast disclosure behavior of listed companies, this is also the problem we concern and focus on.All the time, many theory research attempts to explain the management decision-making behavior on the basis of classical economics and agency, and obtained a number of research results. But a lot of research conclusion inconsistent which caused people to research on this issue further. We consider that, to a large extent, inconsistent reason is that traditional theory research only considers the institutional environment, internal structure and the characteristics of external factors which influence on corporate disclosure, and the manager is usually considered a homogeneous and fully rational, which neglected the role managers play their own. Based on the upper echelons theory and the management talent signaling hypothesis, we studied relationship between listed companies executives background characteristics and listed companies forecast disclosures behavior.Key to answer the following three questions:first, why the listed companies disclosure, namely disclosure motivation problem. Whether executive background characteristics affect earnings forecast disclosure motivation; Second, how listed companies disclose, namely disclosure strategy problem. Company executives background characteristics influence on the performance forecast characteristics choose whether and how to influence; Third, the listed company earnings forecast disclosure consequences, namely superior earnings forecast disclosure market reaction is affected by the background characteristics of executives.Our innovation as the belowed:(1) the innovation of research angle, based on the upper echelons theory, Our research make manager as different style and cognitive abilities, selecting senior background characteristics as the main variables of the explanation of listed companies management earnings forecast disclosure behavior differences. Our reasearch break through the existing research model based on agent theory, and considering the system background in our country, from the background, professional background and political background of the three aspects, broadened the research scope of executive background characteristics;(2) The innovation of theoretical analysis, Our executives in the background and the mode of decision-making of corporate disclosure is analyzed, the relation between the high ladder team theory and agency theory are combined, make up for the defect of separate research explanatory power low, from system, environment and people in the face of corporate disclosure of the decision making process are studied;(3) The innovation of the governance policies. From the perspective of corporate governance ecology,we put forward ecological governance of the predictive information disclosure strategies.We use normative analysis and the empirical analysis with the combination of research methods, and use subject knowledge such as economics, management science and psychology to analyse the information disclosure behavior of listed companies. At the same time, the use of the listed company earnings forecast disclosure data from2007to2011, combined with the background characteristics of executives, empirically tested how the executive’s background characteristics affect earnings forecast disclosure behavior of listed companies. In order to better understand how the background characteristics of executives of listed companies influence earnings forecast disclosure decisions, uncover the secrets of "black box" demographic background, we introduced the regulation among variables between executive background characteristics and disclosures. Adjust these intermediate variables include executives independence, authority, and work hard, we will focus on testing these variables play a role in the executive decision.The basic conclusions are as follows:first, the background characteristics of executives affects earnings forecast voluntary disclosure motivation. The age, gender, sex and education degree significantly related to earnings forecast disclosure motivation, financial background characteristics significantly negative related to performance forecast disclosure motivation, legal background characteristics also negatively related to the disclosure motivation, but the correlation is not significant. Political background characteristics positive correlation to performance of the executives forecast disclosure motivation significantly; Second, executives background characteristics related to performance forecast accuracy, the accuracy and timeliness. At the same time, the study also found that executives in the case of full-time, as well as the chairman and general manager are the same, the correlation is more significant;Third, our results find the management earnings forecast of listed company has information content, which can cause the reaction of the market. We also found that when the CEO have financial background, the capital market reaction will be more intense. The CEO’s capital market securities background characteristics were significantly associated with number of analysts tracking, which prove that background of securities make executives easier to establish communication and relationship with analysts, to attract more analysts to forecast to the company. The CEO’s political background characteristics was positively correlated with the number of media reports, other characteristics correlation was not significant. It suggests that the media are more willing to choose the company which have political background to report.Full text total has eight chapters:chapter1mainly introduces the research background, research significance, research ideas and content, research methods and research innovation and possible contribution;Chapter2, review the related information disclosure literature about characteristics of executives and disclosure decision-making influence factors, and organizational decisions;Chapter3system analysis the asymmetric information theory, signaling theory and the upper echelons theory; Chapter4mainly introduced disclosure of information disclosure system (including management earnings forecast system) and the senior executives appointment system of listed companies,and analyzed earnings forecast disclosure and executive background characteristics. Chapter5,6, and7, examine the relationship of executive background characteristics and performance forecast disclosure motivation, executive’s background characteristics and performance forecast disclosure mode selection and background characteristics of executives and earnings forecast disclosure consequences respectively; Chapter8gives the research conclusion. And combined with the actual situation in our country, we put forward the corresponding policy recommendations. At the same time, we points out the limitations of research in the direction of further research.