Research On Conduction Mechanism And Control Mode Of Rural Bank Credit Risk In China

As the principal of new rural financial institutions, the birth of rural banks is animportant measure to break urban and rural dual problem and support newcountryside construction under new era. Since March2007, the first rural bank-YiLong Hui Min Rural Bank was founded in Sichuan Province, there have been overone thousand rural banks after almost seven years of rapid development, which spreadto all31provinces and more than half of1880counties in China. Rural banks havebecome the new financial force to support agriculture and farmers. However, in actualoperation, the credit risk faced by rural banks has turned to be increasingly prominentsince the weak agriculture and vulnerable farmers. Therefore, the urgent problem tobe solved is discovering how to reduce the risk and strengthen management topromote the healthy development of rural banks. This dissertation tries tocomprehensively analyze the formation and conduction mechanism of rural bankcredit risk from a dynamic perspective, and change the passive situation whereemergency measures are often adopted after the occurrence of credit risk, in order toprovide important method reference for improving the credit risk management levelof rural banks.This dissertation takes “basic theory of rural bank credit risk conduction-dynamicprocess of rural bank credit risk conduction-effects of rural bank credit riskconduction-control modes of rural bank credit risk conduction-empirical study” as thestudy logical route. Using rural finance development theory, credit risk managementtheory, risk conduction theory, as well as such knowledge of game theory, infectiousdiseases theory and system dynamics, it makes a systematic study of rural bank creditrisk from the perspective of risk conduction. Through revealing the conductionmechanism of rural bank credit risk, the dissertation proposes three control modes ofrural bank credit risk conduction, then makes empirical research.The whole researchcan be showed as followings:Chapter1illustrates the research purpose and research significance of conductionmechanism and control mode of rural bank credit risk, also proposes the researchcontents and methods on the basis of deeply studying the domestic and foreignscholars’achievements; Chapter2defines the concept of credit risk, as well as ruralbank credit risk, and analyses the causes of rural bank credit risk, furthermore,elaborates credit risk conduction connotation, and studies the critical elements ofcredit risk conduction; Chapter3proposes the internal conduction and externaltransmission of rural bank credit risk based on summing up the main bodies, thenbuilds the system dynamics model to deduce different conduction paths through extracting the key factors; Chapter4explains the coupling effect, herding effect,contagion effect and spillover effect of rural bank credit risk conduction using thecoupling flow model, game model, infectious disease model and inter-bank lendingmodel; Chapter5discusses the control modes of rural bank credit risk conductionfrom multi-dimensional perspective, that is dynamic regulatory mode applied byincentives and penalties, risk mitigation mode combined with cluster and scatter, risktransfer mode coexisted with guarantee and insurance; Chapter6is empirical research,which makes model correction and simulation by survey results; Chapter7summarizes the full content and puts forwards to research prospects.The dissertation is one of the subsequent results of “Study on Mechanism andControl of Commercial Bank Operational Risk Conduction”, which is supported bythe National Natural Science Foundation (No.77071085).