Research On Warning And Controlling Of Supply Chain Financial Risks

Supply chain finance risk is an uncertainty of loss in the process of financialinstitutions such as banks provide financial services of supply chain. Faced with moreuncertainty, the supply chain financial risk has strong complexity and concealment,and it brings huge losses and damage to all participants in the supply chain financebusiness by making use of the correlation and vulnerability of the supply chain andfinancial system, making the real earnings of supply chain finance business andexpected returns to produce larger deviation. More and more complex financial riskhas become a key problem which restricts the development of the supply chainfinance, how to accurately identify, scientifically monitor, effectively prevent andcontrol complex supply chain finance risk is a realistic requirement and urgent task toease the financing difficulty of medium and small enterprises, expand the businessspace of banks, develop the competitiveness of third industry.As a relatively new research field, the current literature research on supplychain financial risk management mostly focuses on the concept and qualitativedescription of value. In the aspect of theoretical research, a theory system on supplychain financial risk comprehensive management has not been formed. In the aspect ofpractical application, scientific quantitative measure model tools and effective riskmanagement techniques and methods are scanty. Because of this, based on the era andrealistic background of current supply chain finance development, according to theinherent requirement and the research logic of comprehensive risk management, thispaper systematically and deeply studies supply chain financial risk management, andtries to build a theoretical model framework of supply chain financial riskmanagement, which can provide theoretical guidance, find a quantitative riskmonitoring model which is suitable for supply chain financial risk measurerequirements, introduce a kind of new idea and new method of modern riskmanagement which conforms to financial risk prevention and control reality of supplychain. Based on the above systematic research, the paper gets the following results:(1) Setting up a theoretical model framework of the supply chain financial riskmanagement. Starting from supply chain management theory, structured financetheory, risk management theory and dynamic game theory, based on thecomprehensive risk management idea, building a theoretical model framework of the supply chain financial risk management, used to guide theory and the practicalapplication of the supply chain financial risk.(2) Designing an early warning integrated index system of supply chain financialrisks. Through deeply analysis the forming mechanism and transmission mechanismof supply chain financial risk, identifying and analyzing risk indicators, and designinga relatively systematic comprehensive warning integrated index system of supplychain financial risk, used for monitoring and early warning evaluation of supply chainfinancial risk.(3) Setting up a supply chain financial risk measure model based on PCA andLOGIT. By analyzing the applicability of the risk measurement model at home andabroad, build a default probability distribution model adapted to binary classificationcharacteristic of the supply chain financial risk, and empirically test the goodness offit and accuracy of the model.(4) Exploring prevention and control idea and method of supply chain financialrisk based on dynamic loan-to-value ratio decision.Analyzing the loan-to-value ratiodecision difference under different risk preference, establishing dynamic loan-to-valueratio decision model, and empirically analyzing the application of the model whichconsiders the pledge yield rate sequence statistical characteristic and the volatility(VAR value), and introduce the hedging to fix and expand the model.