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Research On The Systematic Risk And Supervision Mode Of Shadow Bank Under The Background Of Capital Account Opening

Posted on:2016-08-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y MaFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330461966113Subject:Industrial Economics
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President Xi first mentioned the develop conception of the "new normal state" of China’s economy in May 2014,he pointed out that our country is now during the period of key strategy opportunities, we need to create macro-control thoughts and methods, to solve the hard problem within development. The "new normal state" of China’s economy, in fact, is the process of the comprehensive transition of the economy to achieve leapfrog development. While, the liberalization of capital account will accelerate the efficient allocation of sources, contribute to the adjustment of our country’s economic structure, and will become the key strategy of our country’s economic transition, as well as the important trend and feature. As the liberalization of capital account putting forward our country’s economic transition, it will also impact on our financial operation system, and will be effect with the accumulated risk factors of our country’s financial system in the same time, aggravate the probability of the appearance of the systematic financial risk of our country, so effective and comprehensive financial regulation mode will be the key protective screen to protect the systematic financial risk from becoming true, a challenge to our financial regulation mode at the present stage emerged, and newer and higher requirement to it will be needed. So, facing with the new situation of capital account liberalization, it is of great strategic meaning and actual value to actively explore the financial regulation mode which is suitable for our country’s financial development practice at the present stage.Over the past years, the shadow banking has more and more become a very important financial phenomenon in our country’s macroeconomic operations, and with its scale expanding gradually, has greatly affected our country’s macroeconomic operations. The conception of shadow banking appeared after the sub-prime crisis in 2007, and generally refers to non-traditional financial institutions and activities out of the traditional financial system, on the contrary of traditional financial channels as banks, and migrates in the gray zone of the financial regulation.our country’s shadow banking phenomenon widely exist in financial products, trusts, guarantees, loans, funds, internet financial industries and private lending, etc. The imbalance of financing structure in our country’s market and financial creation pushed by "mixed operation" trend, has more pushed our country’s "shadow banking" system expanding to a unprecedented scale, according to the calculation in a general caliber by CASS, its scale has reached 27 trillion Yuan, with proportion of 51% of our GDP, has already become the main factor influencing our country’s financial market development and changing our country’s financial structure at the moment.At the present stage, seriously imbalance exists in the financing structure of our country, which appears to be poor direct financing channels and banks to be the key forms of indirect financing channels. Because of the existence of information asymmetry, which lead to the greatly appearance of credit rationing phenomena, banks choose to give loan to big and medium sized public-owned enterprises with low risks relatively based on the prevention of operation risk and credit risk of their own, and small and medium sized enterprises and real estate industries as well as local financing platforms which contribute a lot to GDP couldn’t get the banks’ credit-supports, shadow banking has become the main financing resources to them. But there is regulatory arbitrage in shadow banking system, and low transparency in its operation processes, the special inner-mechanisms and operation forms lead to huge systematic financial risks in it, and exists the probability threaten to real economy, the problem of private lending in Wenzhou and the collapse phenomena of Ordos in Inner-Mongolia has all gradually exposing the hidden risks.The liberalization of capital account will determine the hides or massive outbreak of the risk. When there isn’t liberalization of capital account, the shadow banking system is in a "close loop" operation form, the inner-risks are hidden, and the liberalization of capital account will make that appear, mass flow of international capital and the changes in capital prices such as interest rates and currency rates will lead to the change of the financing supporting structure of it, and when the capital chain breaks, a lot of enterprises will close down and bankrupt, the financial crisis will quickly conduct to real economy, there will be massively break out of systematic financial risk. Thus, the systematic risk of shadow banking with background of the liberalization of capital account will be one of the biggest risks which threaten our country’s macroeconomic operation and financial market operation at the present stage, it is a must to deeply research this problem, and to targeted improve our country’s financial regulation mode at the moment so as to avoid and prevent the outbreak of systematic financial crisis in our country.At the same time, trend of mixed operation and the quickly development of financial creation as internet financial industries of shadow banking system, has lead to the regulation vacuum, regulation mismatching and the duplication of regulation, such phenomena gradually exposed and appearing, forming as lack of micro regulation that targeted to the shadow banking risk, and the absence of macro prudential regulation, has also make it hard to prevent and facing with systematic financial risks, the traditional financial mode is showing seriously lagging, and couldn’t completely fill the needs of financial development nowadays. The financial industries are the economic arteries of the country, the financial risks could be apparently reduced via implementing effective financial regulations, keep the financial industry to develop healthily, and to rise the financial efficiency comprehensively, as well as to be a key role in the entirely construction of the country’s economy. Thus, with the background of the further and expansion liberalization of the capital account, there is more utterly need of creation and reform of our country’s financial regulation mode.Based on the deeply analysis of the country’s financial regulation mode at the moment, the article will target on the lack of our country’s financial regulation mode, and point out the regulation object and the regulation target, via using the multiple LOGIT empirical modeling analysis method and to combine with our country’s real situation to conduct the analysis of the trend of our country’s financial regulation mode, raise the macro institutional framework and the micro improving paths, draw up a targeting improving planning of the financial regulation mode both within the short and long term, to explore and create the financial regulation mode with the new specialty of financial operation of our country, will be a help for our country to achieve the goal of great-leap-forward development and comprehensive economic transition successfully and prosperously.The article is combined with seven chapters, and the details are as follows:Chapter One, the prolegomenon, firstly raises the research background and significant, introduces the research method and the innovations at the same time, and then the article’s logical thoughts and the basic framework.Chapter Two, research summary, and with part of theoretical research and literature research, introduces the reasons of financial risks, the financial crisis model, the financial crisis conduction and the necessity of financial regulation with relative main stream financial regulation theories in the theoretical research part, and briefly introduces the domestic and foreign research literature of the liberalization of capital account as well as the shadow banking development from the view of risks and regulations in the part of literature research.Chapter Three, analysis of the trend of "new normal state" of China’s economy and the liberalization of capital account, firstly introduces the meaning the of "new normal state" of China’s economy is the comprehensive economic transition process to achieve the great-leap-forward development, introduces the experiences of the liberalization of capital account in some economic transition countries, and at last points out that the liberalization of capital account will be the important feature and trend during the period of our country’s comprehensive economic transition with the background of "new normal state" of China’s economy.Chapter Four, analyses the appearance trend of the systematic risk of our country’s shadow banking with the background of liberalization of capital account, constructs a theoretical model of the relation of liberalization of capital account and the explosion of the systematic financial risk of our country’s shadow banking. Firstly analyses our country’s inner-imbalance of financing structure situation at the moment, reveals the background of the quickly expansion of the shadow banking and the base of its appearance, points out that the accumulated systematic financial risks in our country’s shadow banking system will be the biggest institutional risk that threatens our country’s macroeconomic operation and financial market operation, it will be a hidden risk when there isn’t liberalization of capital account in our country, and the expanding liberalization of capital account will lead to the appearance of the systematic financial risk accumulated in the shadow banking, conducts the financial crisis to real economy, affects the goal of comprehensive economic transition of our country prosperously.Chapter Five, analyses the financial regulation inefficiency in the process of the appearance of systematical risks of shadow banking, firstly analyses the pattern of the regulation target and the mode of our country’s financial regulation system at the present stage, and further points out that the new trend of shadow banking development including the trend of financial creation as internet financing exposes the narrow of our country’s financial regulation mode nowadays with the trend of mixed operation, financial regulation mismatching, regulation vacuum and regulation duplication phenomena emerged up, points out the lack of micro regulation and structural bottleneck of macro institutional architecture makes the seriously lagging performance of our country’s financial regulation mode at the present stage, makes our country’s financial regulation mode could not conduct comprehensive and effective prevention in the process of the appearance of systematic risks of shadow banking, only effective financial regulation mode will prevent the systematic financial risk from its happening.Chapter Six, conducts the explores and researches of our country’s financial regulation mode with the background of the liberalization of capital account, firstly points out that the main objects of our country’s financial regulation:to prevent systematic financial risks and to regulate micro financial activities, the main targets are financial institutions, financial actions and businesses, then researches on the macro architecture of the financial regulation mode of our country, via using the multiple LOGIT empirical modeling analysis method and to combine with our country’s real situation of financial regulation, raises the institutional planning and coordination mechanism of the financial regulation mode of our country in the short term and the trend of reform of the macro institutional framework of our country’s financial regulation mode in the long term, analyses the probability, the necessity and the conductive steps of the experiment of the new regulation mode in small and matured areas, at last conducts the micro improvement planning in four aspects including the liberalization of capital account, the shadow banking system, the legal framework construction and improving the atmosphere of financial regulation through the microscopic prospective.Chapter Seven, the main research conclusions and the further research prospects, firstly comprehensively summarizes the main conclusions of the research, and then prospects the research development in the future.The research formed conclusions as follows:Conclusion One:Under the new normal state background, facing with the new situation of capital account liberalization, it is of great strategic meaning and actual value to actively explore the financial regulation mode which is suitable for our country’s financial development practice at the present stage.
Keywords/Search Tags:shadow barking, new normal state, liberalization of capital account, financial regulation mode
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