Research On The Capital Account Liberalization Of Transition Countries In Eal And Eastercntrn Europe With The Perspective Of Financial Stability

What did economic globalization leave for us? I think it was the capital accountliberalization. Because the capital account liberalization has afforded many expects todevelop the economy and to enrich the national, recorded the delight for realizing theanticipation, and witnessed the pain for failure.The worldwide scholars have been doingthe hard studies from different perspectives on the following subjects：What reasonsleaded the liberalization of capital account to enhance the financial stability and toreceive the positive payoffs? What factors leaded the liberalization of capital account toeffect the financial stability and to receive the negative payoffs? The operation mistakesmay be the reason,or not? Is the uncoordinated environment,or the primeval defects ofthe policies,or derivative defects the final answer? All in all,the human beings arepursuing the answer.The target of the paper is to explore the general, special and deeper reasons leadingto positive or negative payoffs,through analyzing the process of the capital accountliberalization, and then to find the right way to liberalize the capital account.At last,Thepaper will supply some suggestions of China on the process liberalizing the capitalaccount.The paper is consist of8chapters as following:Chapter One shows the target and significance, makes an review of researches,summarizes the shortcomings, and sets forth the line and innovation of the research.Chapter Two puts forward to the structure on analysis of capital accountliberalization,and uses it under the background of transition to analyze the constraints ofliberalization of capital account,and the relationship between the liberalization andfinancial stability.Chapter Three provides an overview of the political and economic constrains.Andthen it analyzes the financial stability of central and eastern European countries underthese constraints.Chapter Four focuses on the institution construction supporting the capital accountliberalization,including banking system construction, financial market construction andexchange arrangement construction. Chapter Five gives the arguments for the pattern choices of capital accountliberalization of Central and Eastern European Countries in Transition. It points out thekey problem is the degree of openness of bank system and capital market,which showsthe over-openness.Chapter Six makes an econometric analysis on the constraints of capital accountliberalization on the basis of the former analysis.Chapter Severn highlights on the positive and negative payoffs by transitioncountries in Central and Eastern Europe to implement the capital account liberalization.Itemphasizes the promotion of the liberalization.It shows that the transition countries inCentral and Eastern Europe made used of the mechanism of capital account liberalizationto introduce the capital inflow.And it points out the unsustainability of the inflows as themajor force to support the economic development.In particularly,the chapter points outthe primitive drawbacks and its effects of capital account liberalization,which isimmersed in the neo-liberal economic development model.At last, it reflects theinevitability of conversion from the positive to negative payoffs.Chapter Eight makes an further conclusion on the whole paper,and puts forwardsome suggestions for the implementation of China.The main conclusion are as follows:1.The paper makes the qualitative analysis on the promotion by political andeconomic constraints on capital account liberalization,and the role safeguarding by theinstitution construction.The over-openness has crucial role in the type of payoffs ofcapital account liberalization.The primitive drawbacks of liberalization limits thenormal effects,which deteriorate the financial stability.2.The paper constructs an fixed effect model to find out the specific direction ofinfluence by the constraints on capital account liberalization on the basis of thequalitative analysis. There is negative correlation between banking development and thecontrol index of capital account. The financial market and economic development arepositively correlated with the control index of capital account.