Research On Carbon Emission Effect Of Industrial Structure Change In Gansu

Specific regional industrial structure determines the specific energy consumption structure, economic development and economic growth, and thus determines the regional pollution emission levels. The lower the level of development of industrial structure and early stages of industrialization, the larger industrial energy consumption, lower energy efficiency, leading to higher levels of carbon emissions. Conversely, the higher the level of development of industrial structure and closer to the late stages of industrialization, the proportion of secondary industry will relatively decline, a corresponding reduction in energy consumption, coupled with technological advances in the role of carbon emissions will continue reduced. Existing research is generally considered the industrial structure plays a very important role in carbon emissions and it definitely to be a target key to decrease carbon emission intensity in the future. Therefore, the research on the carbon emission effect of industrial structure level changes from the empirical study, investigate the effect of the mechanism and response relations between industry, economic system and the carbon emissions would have great theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, we discuss the issue of carbon emission effect of industrial structure adjustment in Gansu from the theoretical basis to empirical research based on the relevant theories and methods of industrial economics, environmental economics, regional economics, ecological economics and econometrics. The main contents are following:First, we combed the theory systems of industrial structure evolution and low-carbon economy, underlie theoretical interpretation and mechanism of the impact between industrial structure and carbon emissions. Second, we made a detailed analysis of the evolution of Gansu industrial structure and current situation carbon emission. Third, we used index decomposition analysis method to analyze the main factors and its role of carbon emission growth in Gansu based on Kaya identities expanded form, then we discussed the relations of decoupling between carbon emission and regional economic development and in Gausu. Fourth, we build a vector autoregression model, judging whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the industrial structure, economic growth, urbanization and carbon emissions through the cointegration analysis method, using the Grainger causality to test the logical relationship among economic growth, urbanization, regional industrial structure change and carbon emission, using the impulse response analysis method to study the main influence factors of carbon emission, and using the variance decomposition analysis method to judge the contribution and relative importance of each factors. Fifth, we account within-regional carbon emissions by using the energy consumption data of enterprise-scale sub-sector, sub-species, then we use the carbon emission data as a variable in static panel regression model to analyze the relationship between industrial growth and carbon emissions, confirming existence of industry EKC, then we and on this basis discussed the main factors and its contribution of industrial carbon emission. Sixth, based on Hansen (1999) panel threshold regression analysis, we build a panel threshold analysis model to analyze the important threshold effects of carbon emission effects of industrial structure. We found that industry size, industry structure, and per capita income levels all have a significant threshold effect, and the regression coefficients are significant different in different threshold range. Seventh, we presented suggestions to optimize the industry structure adjustment under the carbon constraint. Finally, we presented the mail conclusions of the thesis and future research directions outlook.The main conclusions of this paper including:As to the main influence factors of Gansu carbon emission, the changes in the economic structure, economies of scale and size of the population as a whole to promote the increase of carbon emissions, and energy intensity and energy structure adjustment is conducive to reducing carbon emissions. In all factors, the scale of economy contribute lot to the carbon emission growth. The overall effect of this phase of the industrial structure of carbon emissions growth is positive, indicating that the adjustment of industrial structure in recent years in Gansu is not conducive to energy conservation, we still need to accelerate the industrial structure adjustment in the future. There is a weak decoupling or strong negative decoupling relations between economic growth and carbon emission.By analyzing the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure of Gansu, we found that a long-term stable relationship exists. The change and evolution of the industrial structure and urbanization is largely led to an increase of carbon emissions. From the impact of each factor on carbon emissions, the impact of industrial structure adjustment seems violent changes in a short-term period but stable in a long-term period, the overall presentation is positive.When use panel regression model to discuss the industrial restructuring and carbon emission in second industry, we found that there is "inverted U-shaped" curve in industrial field. In the initial stages of economic development, industrial carbon emissions caused an increase in carbon emission with industrial output per worker increasing. While when the economy develops to a certain stage, with the further increase of industrial output per worker, the carbon emissions caused by industrial development will be showing a downward trend. Variable coefficients for the different levels of economic development and further grouped regression results show that the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions will have different impact direction and levels.By using panel threshold effect analysis, we found that industry size, industry structure and the level of GDP per capita are important impacts of carbon emission effect of the industrial structure change. The industrial scale has a dual threshold effect, with the increasing scale of the industry the effect showed a trend of increasing first and decreasing last. Industrial structure has a dual threshold characteristics, along with the proportion of the secondary industry and tertiary industry output value, the impact of industrial structure change on carbon emissions is weak inhibitory effect first, then rapidly increasing, and then began a slow decline after a certain stage. Per capita income level also has a dual threshold effect, with increasing levels of per capita GDP, the impact of changes is inhibition first and promoting after the first threshold, then changes the trend suppression in turn.The innovation of the paper is:First, based on the basis of Hansen(1999) threshold panel model, we analyze the threshold effect on carbon emissions of Gansu industrial structure change, and discuss the threshold effect on industrial scale, industrial structure, and per capita income levels existed in the process of carbon emissions, which is a useful exploration for interpretation between the industrial structure and carbon emissions nonlinear, structural mutations issues. Second, the method of calculate within regional carbon emission on the energy consumption data of enterprises above designated size of sub-sectors and sub-species during 2003 to 2013 enriches the case study within the provincial carbon emissions. Third, through in-depth analysis of the underlying causes of changes in the industrial structure and mechanism of the impact on carbon emissions, we present a direct and indirect effects of carbon emission made of industrial structure. At the same time, the effect is vary at different levels of economic output and economic development.