Research On Market Forcasting Based On Consumer Search In Network Enviornment

With the widespread penetration of the Internet, especially the increased usages of search engines in recent years, consumers are able to get free access to all kinds of information relating to products and services. In this context, there is no doubt that new changes will emerge in consumers’information choice behavior and consumer online information search may turn into a precious resource for understanding the market demand.Built on consumer decision theory, this study discusses the market demand forecasting based on consumer information search in network environment. The study focuses on understanding consumer online search and examining the role of information search in market demand forecasting in general goods market, service market and new product market respectively. The study also addresses the relationships among consumer search, advertisement and sales.Firstly, the paper models the relationships between online search and sales as well as market share by using a regression model and a fractional logit model in the context of Chinese automobile market, based on which prediction is made and verified. The relationship between advertisement and consumer search is addressed and the mediating role of consumer search in the relation between advertisement and sales is discussed.Secondly, the paper builds on autoregressive model and verifies the additional predictive power of online search in tourism demand forecasting in the context of Chinese tourism market. Results suggest that online information search is an effective measure of the tourist’s intention, and demand forecasting model that combines online information search enhances precision rate.Thirdly, the paper further proposes a new search trend measure that makes use of the information of the temporal trend of online search and tests it in the context of Chinese motion picture industry. By dealing with the box office in the opening week and during the later run of a movie’s lifetime separately, the paper validates the predictive power of consumer search in new product market using a regression model and a dynamic simultaneous-equations model respectively.The paper makes the following contributions to the extant literature:(1) The fine-grained investigation proves the predictive power of consumer search at brand level. (2) It considers the competition between brands and studies the effect of information search on market share in addition to the effect on sales. (3) It proposes a measure that captures the growing pattern in addition to the volume of online search and verifies its additional predictive power empirically in the motion picture industry. (4) The study discusses the relationship among consumer search, market performance and advertisement under an integrated framework, which helps deepening the understanding of the role of consumer search in consumer decision process.This study has managerial implications in areas such as business management and marketing. When a business has access to information of consumers’online search through search engines and integrates it into its information system, it will have the ability to better forecast consumer demand. This study is of specific relevance to new product development and marketing strategy. Besides, the findings on the role of consumer search in the relation between advertisement and sales can help marketers make and implement marketing strategies more purposely.