| The gold has been a kind of special article with monetary attribute, financial property and goods attribute, it plays an important role in the national economy. In the financial field, the gold is an unique special commodity which has its own credit without government guarantee; in the commodity field, owing to its good stability, the gold is a consumption of resources non-exhaustible commodity. The gold production of China in 2007 was more than the gold production of South Africa to become the largest gold producer in the world, and for the 7th consecutive year. China has overtaken India, for centuries the dominant buyer, to become the biggest buyer of gold in the world in 2013 for the first time. The gold supply and demand changes of China in the future will have a significant impact on the global gold market. In the paper, the author does deep analysis on the gold supply and demand trends of China in the future, and suggests related development strategy.In this paper, the author does intense research on the gold consumption rules for the first time, and draws some conclusions. The first conclusion is the per capita of gold fabrication consumer demand and per capita GDP did not form an "S"-type rule,but form an "inverted U" type track. The second conclusion is the gold fabrication consumption intensity and per capita GDP form an "inverted U" type track, but they did not form the similar consumption peak. The third conclusion is the per capita fabrication consumer demand of gold and per capita GNI also form an "inverted U" type track. The forth conclusion is per GNI gold consumption decreased as GNI increased. Based on the gold consumption rules, the author uses a variety of methods to predict China’s gold demand in the future. Firstly, the author selects the gray model to forecast China’s gold sector consumption. Then, the author classifies a number of typical gold consuming countries to Japanese model, American model and Europe model based on per capita gold consumption and gold consumption structure,forecasts the gold consumption of China in the three models, concludes that China gold fabrication consumer demand will be between the Japanese model and American model. Finally, according to the relationship between GNI and per GNI goldconsumption, the author introduces system dynamics model into the gold consumption forecast for the first time, predicts gold consumption in the different GDP growth scenarios in the next 20 years, concludes that the gold consumption of China is 1900 t in 2020, 2300 t in 2025 and 2500 t in 2030. Hubbert model is widely used in the oil fields. In this paper, the author introduces Hubbert model into the gold mine production forecast for the first time, then uses two methods to calculate the gold peak production and arrival time. The first method is formula derivation by Chen Yuanqian, the second method is the gold Hubbert production system dynamics model.The study shows that the gold peak production of China will reach in 2022-2024, and the peak production is about 550 tons.The author holds that the gold supply and demand gap of China will be further expanded by analyzing the gold supply and demand situation of China. Then the author analyzes the problems in the current gold production, put forward to some strategies. The suggestions include continue to increase the domestic deep-deposit prospecting and prospecting in west area; porphyry copper gold deposit and epithermal deposit will be the prospecting directions in the future; further improve in gold comprehensive utilization; strengthen to using the recovery of gold; have closer cooperation with the counties along "One Belt and One Road"; have closer cooperation with the counties in Africa and Latin America and begin overseas gold exploration to the low-cost countries and regions.
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