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An Analysis On Convergence Of China’s Regional Economic Growth

Posted on:2015-12-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:C S YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330467456142Subject:Theoretical Economics
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Why some countries are rich and the others poor, and why some countries have a rapid development on economy and the others develop slowly in the world? The problem of economic development is always a hot issue in economics kingdom. Economists are concerned especially on the long-term trend and the inherent mechanics of economic development.Since the end of1970s, China has reformed its economy system from the central planned to the market-oriented. From then, China has experienced a prompt development on economy in more than30years and obtained globally-watched achievement. However, the order of China’s reform and open is followed along special economic zone, coast, river, edge to the interior. The unbalanced development strategy on different regions leads to the huge difference among the east region, the middle region and the west region. Although it is natural at the beginning of the reform, the persistence and expansion of the differences in3economic regions will has negative effect on China’s economy development and cause a lot of social problem as well. In order to coordinate the development of regional economy, China’s government has adjusted its regional economic development strategy first time in the mid’s90s20C. The implement of the Western Development Strategy denotes the change on China’s development strategy, from the unbalanced development strategy to a new strategy which aims to the coordinated development on regional economy. From then, central government has put forward a series strategies and measures respectively to promote the coordinated development on regional economy, such as "The revitalization of northeast old industrial base","Midlands rise strategy" and "The city groups in mid and lower reaches of the Yangtze River ".The aims of implementing these strategies are accelerate the development of middle and western regions and reduce the differences between east region and west region. The strategies above promoted the development of economy in mid and western regions; however, we can conclude that the gap between east and mid-western regions is not narrowed from relative statistics materials. It results a series problems as following:Firstly, in the process of more than30years economic development, did the absolute and relative difference between east region and mid-western regions reduce or enlarge? What is the trend of them in future? Secondly, is there probably the absolute gap among China’s regional economy narrowed in future? Lastly, if there has the probability that China’s regional economy will be convergence. What are the mode and the road of the convergence? It is very important in theory and practices to apply the appropriate economic theory researching the problems above, grasp the context and the trend of the differences among China’s regional economy, and supply the theoretical base and policy decision supports for our country at the course of implement the effective regional economic development strategies.This analyses the convergence of China’s regional economy growth based on the Solow model from the view of per capita GDP. With the data of per capita GDP every province from1978to2012, the writer applies statistical methods and regression model to analyze the convergence of China’s regional economy growth, describes the situations of economy growth and convergence of China’s3regions, and demonstrates the situation and the trend of convergence in3regions. The writer also gives an empirical analysis on the factors that have effect on China’s regional economy growth and convergence and supplies some policy proposal on coordinating the development of3regions in China.Chapter1is an introductory, the background and significant of this research was introduced in this chapter. It also introduces the main contents and methods used in this study, as well as the possible innovation points in this paper.Chapter2is devoted to demonstrate, induce and comment the existing researches at home and abroad. Pointing out the root reason why the conclusions on China’s regional economy growth are different, even contradicted each other.Chapter3tries to describe the difference among China’s regional economy in the mass, introduce the change process of per capita GDP in China’s3regions using the descriptive statistics. The σ convergence in per capita GDP of each province and east region, middle region and west region is analyzed using the statistic of standard deviation, ANOVA, Gini coefficients and Theil index. According to the analysis, the convergence of per capita GDP in each province experienced a process with convergence and divergence alternatively after China’s reform and open. Especially after90s of20c, the gaps on per capita GDP of each province is widened again distinctly. The economic development level and the speed of economic growth descends from east to west, and the absolute and relative differences became wider. At the same time, the differences of capita GDP took on convergence within3regions. So we can conclude that the per capita GDP of each province in China has a feature that converges within regions and diverges between regions.In chapter4, bases on Barro and Sala-I-Martin model, a famous neoclassical economic growth theory model, an empirical analysis on the absolute β convergence and the conditional β convergence are conducted using a section across model and a panel data model. From the empirical analysis, the absolute β convergence does not exist in China. However, there exists conditional β convergence after controlling the input factors, institutional factors and nonstructural factors, and it converges3.5percent every year. The variables such as human capital, physical capital, reform of enterprises’institution, opening to the world, infrastructure construction, and degree of industrialization have positive effect on economy growth and convergence, while the variables such as growth rate of population, government behaviors, and the difference between urban and rural have negative effect on economy growth and convergence.The ADF and JJ test are conducted in chapter5. According to these test, we can conclude that there is forming two clubs, one denotes the "richer club" in east region and the other denote "poor club" in west region in China. However, as to provinces in middle region, there does not existing the "club convergence" in there. Some provinces, such as "cities group in middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River", may facilitate industry transferring from "Yangtze Delta", promote its economy growth, and come into the "richer club" depending on its regional advantageous. However, as to others provinces in middle region, they maybe come into the "poor club". In summary, the situation of China’s convergence is in change still. In chapter6, the research results are summarized, conclusions are made, and suggestions for further study are proposed.
Keywords/Search Tags:Regional Economy, Economic Growth, σ Convergence βConvergence, Club Convergence
PDF Full Text Request
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