| Agricultural science is the decisive force to speed up the construction of modern agriculture, agriculture scientific and technological input is the source of achieving agriculture scientific and technological progress, In2012, No.1document from the national central government emphasized on that the government should play a leading role in agriculture scientific and technological input, gradually increased the proportion that agriculture scientific and technological input accounted for agricultural added value. The ministry of agriculture issued Agricultural Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020),which put forward the goal that the contribution of technological progress to agriculture in our country should reach63%by2020.In order to implement the specific target of scientific and technological progress contribution rate, we need to have the corresponding support in agriculture scientific and technological input. However, Agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress is not a simple linear relationship, because agriculture scientific and technological progress system is a complex large system, which has the characteristics of dynamic and feedback, etc. System dynamics is known as the laboratory of strategic and policy, it is suitable to build the dynamic simulation model of agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress in our country,and to research the evolution trend of agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress, which has yet to see the similar research results in china.There are three research purposes in this paper. Firstly, this paper is to build the system dynamics model of agriculture scientific and technological input and agriculture scientific and technological progress,that is dynamic simulation model. Secondly, using the established simulation model, this paper is to forecast the contribution of technological progress to agriculture in our country by2020according to the current financial input in agricultural science and technology. Finally, using the established simulation model, this paper is to make use ofThe scenario analysis method and conduct the experiment of policy, putting forward to a reasonable solution to realize the contribution of technological progress to agriculture that Agricultural Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020) issued and agricultural science and technology financial input in our country.This research mainly includes the following four parts:The first part is about the theory research of the agriculture scientific and technological progress and its related issues. In this part, the paper emphasize on elaborating the connotation of the agriculture scientific and technological progress systematically, analyzing the characteristic of agricultural science and technology activity and its subject, and researching agriculture scientific and technological progress system and its characteristic, so as to build the system dynamics model of agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress and to provide theoretical support of conducting the experiment of policy.The second part is about the present research situation of agricultural science and technology input. In this part, the paper comb the evolution trend of agriculture science and technology policy and science and technology system in our country, analysis the strength of agricultural science and technology in our country, use complex system coordination degree model to research the coordination degree of agricultural science and technology input and economic growth of agriculture, and use stochastic frontier function beyond the logarithm model and the theory of cointegration so as to reveal the long-term equilibrium relationship between the agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress and to provide the reality basis and direction for conducting the experiment of policy.The third part is about the dynamic simulation model of agricultural science and technology input and agriculture scientific and technological progress in our country, and the experiment of policy.Firstly, this paper will abstractly analyze the primary factors which influence the agriculture scientific and technological progress of our country and the relationship, structure between these factors, including the financial input. Designing the system flow chart of agriculture Technological Investment and technological progress of our country make it possible to use the professional simulation software of system dynamics to structure system dynamics model of agriculture technological investment and technological progress of our country.And then, this paper will analyze the development trend of agriculture technological investment and technological progress of our country, using the tool which based on the model. Using the agricultural technological financial input as the political control variable and applying the scenario analysis to design seven different schemes of technological investment and to build the dynamic simulation models for the contribution of agricultural technological progress which comes from different input schemes.At last, this paper will select the technological investment scheme which can implement specific purpose of the contribution of technological progress and optimize devoted structure of agricultural R&D.The fourth part forwards policy suggestions accordingly which will promote our agricultural science and technology on the basis of the comparative study.Conclusions of this study are showed as follows. Firstly, the market mechanism can not function well in the field of agricultural science and technology, so the government should play a leading role, bear the responsibility and obligation to make up the market failure. Secondly, the Chinese government always attach great importance to the effect of agriculture scientific and technological progress on economic growth,and how to reflect the function of government leading role in the development of agricultural science and technology will be the future focus of Chinese policy. Thirdly, the investment of agricultural R&D and promotion of agricultural technology are the important factors to promote the agricultural science and technology, the financial investment in agricultureis not suited to our agricultural economy now, and then if it is not adequately increased, the contribution rate of technological progress to agriculture will decline. Fourthly, the measure of promoting agriculture or rural economic is not significant even if agricultural R&D and technology promotion activities are used. The activities of agricultural R&D and technology promotion are lacking interaction, and the mismatch problem of technology and production should be solved. Fifthly, agricultural R&D activities can not compare with the technology promotion about the level of agriculture scientific and technological progress. The innovation capacity needs to be further improved.Sixth, to achieve the strategic objectives that the "Agricultural Technology Development plan (2006-2020)" submitted that contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress to reach to the2020, and Financial Agricultural R&D investment accounted for0.64%of the agricultural added value, and annual growth rate of fiscal investment in agricultural technology promotion reach9.0622%between2010and2020; Seventh, to optimize the investment structure of agricultural R&D,take efforts to make investment ratio of China’s agricultural basic research, applied research and experimental development to reach1:4.59:13.4,thus to ensuring agriculture R&D investment promoting agricultural science and technology working best; eighth, system dynamics model is an experimental policy instruments of economic and social system, which is including investment in agricultural science and technology advancement systems, scenario analysis method can be applied to expand the policy of repeated simulation and inspect effect of policy implementation.The study concluded above is provided with good policy implications:first, governments at all levels should firmly establish the strategic thinking of invigorating; second, insisting the leading role of the government in the agricultural scientific and technological progress, what’s more, to ensure that the necessary financial investment in agricultural science and technology, ensure the realization of the strategic objectives that "Agricultural Science and Technology Development Plan (2006-2020)" has put forward; third, through institutional innovation to establish a diversified investment in agricultural science and technology system; fourth, by optimizing the investment structure, establish a sound agricultural science and technology knowledge innovation system, establish and improve mechanisms for collaborative innovation, to enhance the promotion of technological innovation and technology capacity and to improve output effect of scientific and technological input.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected the following: 1. This paper studies the relationship between agricultural science and technology financial input and the agricultural technological progress with the theory and method of system dynamics. That is a innovation of research perspective, which can contribute to the development of new analysis methods and research ideas for the policies of agricultural technological investment of our country.2. This paper establishes the dynamic imitation model of the system of agriculture technological investment and technological progress of our country with the theory and method of system dynamics. Using complex system coordination degree model analyze the coordination degree of agricultural technological investment and agricultural economic growth. Optimizing the structure of agriculture technological investment of our country with the utility function of Cobb-Douglas which is widely used in economic analysis is the innovation of this study in the application of the research methods.3. The other feature and innovation of this paper is that there is a dynamic simulation of the policies of agricultural technological investment and financial investment of our country so that we can find the scheme of the agricultural technological investment and financial investment which can realize the purpose of the contribution of technological progress to agriculture, with the help of applying the methods of scenario analyses and scientifically setting different scene.
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