Risk Management In Large Scale Programs

Projects and programs have been progressively adopted by organizations as means of doing business. Whereas projects are usually conceived to accomplish the tactical level activities while living within the time, cost, and quality triangles, the programs are multi-project organizations realized to exploit synergies between the inter-related components through coordination and other activities, and are closely linked to the organizational strategy. The project risks are the uncertainties relating to the successful completion of project deliverables, while the program risks are usually known as the uncertainties connected with transforming high level strategy into new ways of working, in order to deliver strategic benefits to the organizations. The program risks thus differ from the ’typical’project risks; and so should be true for risk management approaches adopted for them both.In majority of program practices, however, the very differential between projects and programs is simply disregarded, causing a frequent over focus on the tactical aspects and an under attention towards the strategic focus of the programs. Consequently, the programs are able to contribute far littler in the organizational success than what they should have ideally paid. In the large scale programs, which are characterized by higher degrees of uncertainty and complexity, such ignores may bring in irreparable losses to the regimes.The missing realization of program locus (i.e. in between the projects and strategy) within the organizational hierarchy, and the paucity of program-specific approaches has led the project practices to dominate and continue, subduing the distinct identity of the programs. One cause backing such a diffuseness is lack of risk management methodologies tailored for this distinct function. Although a lot of studies have been devoted to project risk management methods, readings on program risk management methodologies are rarely found. This reveals the need to understand the essence of program risk management, and to develop specialized methodologies for implicit and explicit risk management in programs. In the large scale programs, the manifestation of manifold risks particularly gives rise to indecisiveness. The presence of multiple stakeholders and the relative absence of scientific decision making techniques make the program (risk) management further challenging. Since each decision bears far-flung consequences, such situations obligate utilization of scientific techniques for risk oriented judgments. While the deficiency of program risk management methodologies is one issue, there are several other barriers en route for risk management practice in both projects and programs too. In order to exercise risk management in the real world domains, the practitioners must bear a clear understanding of these barriers as well.This research addresses the program risk management theme in several angles. Initially, it develops the concepts of risk and risk management in general, and introduces the risk conceptions applicable to projects and programs, in particular. In order to accentuate this, it gathers the recommendations of eminent scholars, guides, and standardization bodies working in relevant domains. Moreover, it highlights the distinct program locus and emphasizes to manage the program contexts for successful program realization. Further, based on relevant descriptions and findings from different literatures, it reports a number of perceived barriers en route for risk management practice on ground; it also discusses the rationales behind this infirmity and classifies them into definite categories.In order to manage the large scale programs, this research introduces two novel concepts for explicit program risk management, called Risk Routing and Risk Leveling. Risk Routing suggests a deliberate shift of risks to the right organizational level where they can be addressed most effectively, whereas Risk Leveling endorses to achieve stabilized environments in programs by pacifying the risky contexts surrounding the program components in a systematic way. This research also formulates a structured program risk management methodology called Risk Leveling in Program Environments (RLPE), which embraces Risk Routing and Risk Leveling mechanisms to manage risks in programs. RLPE joins in several decision tools such as Brainstorming, Delphi, Three Point Estimates, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP), and standard deviation to provide an integrated structure for risk management in programs. RLPE tracks the standard risk management process, preserves distinct program locus, and employs certain qualitative and quantitative measures to achieve risk leveled environments for program success. This research also emphasizes upon the need of implicit program risk management for program success, and in such connection, it designs the Risk Aware Component Selection (RACS) model for apposite component selection in programs under fuzzy environments. RACS demonstrates how certain qualitative and quantitative decision techniques can be exploited in structured ways, to actualize risk aware components selections in programs. RACS uses several decision techniques such Brainstorming, Nominal Group Technique, AHP, and Fuzzy TOPSIS, in a systematic structure and can be used to reach the intended optimal component choices in large scale programs.Since the telecom development programs are usually complex and large scale disciplines, this research endeavors to study some of them. In such pursuance it undertakes several survey based studies through engagement of the project and program experts. It learns the top of line barriers en route for risk management practice in projects and programs in Pakistan telecom market. Further, it recognizes two large scale public sector telecom programs inside Pakistan, known as the Next Generation Mobile Services (NGMS) program and the National Broadband Program (NBP), and rehearses the risk management methodologies devised. This research discovers the tangible risks associated to the NGMS program, finds out risk mitigation solutions, and authenticates the RLPE methodology to manage NGMS risks. It also validates the risk aware decision model RACS to select technology adoptions for three different market segments under the NBP program in Pakistan. It tells us about the best broadband technological solutions which can be adopted for different segment based project (components) implementations in Pakistan.To sum things up, from the theoretical standpoints, this research establishes the significance of risk management and program management, equips the academia and the practitioners with latest developments in program risk management field, enables the managers to visualize and conceive programs in enhanced perspectives, and extends certain novel methodologies to manage risk in programs. In this way, it provides valuable contribution to the current literatures and fills pertinent research gaps. From the practical perspectives, the findings reached in this research can help Pakistan’s market in instigating corrective actions and better managing their telecom programs. The entire contents (concepts, methodologies, and empirical realizations) worked under this research can be particularly advantageous for managing risks in the large scale programs. The courses outlined in this research may occupy an integral habitation in the overall program management flows. The offered methodologies can be customized to meet the needs of a variety of programs.