Jiangsu’s Development Mode And Paths Low Carbon Economy Under Climate Change

Energy demand is rising while world economy continues steady development. The burning of fossil fuels has led to continuous increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It contributs a lot to global warming and climate change. Climate change is the most significant environmental problem now. It is not only climate system itself, but also a political, economic and environment issue. Economic development is the key point. The concentration of greenhouse gases may go back to the level before the Industrial Revolution by mitigating climate change, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the absorption sink of greenhouse gases. However, coal will remain its importance in energy consumption for a long time in future because of the impacts of international coal price, climate change and air pollution as well as the development of clean technology. Therefore, every country has to weigh their interests in the efforts of mitigating climate change. On one hand, climate change mitigation policies will involve economic development and affect the progress of modernization and sustainable development directly in developing countries. On the other hand, extreme weather events caused by the changes of global weather patterns bring different losses to every country’s economy, society and ecology. All countries, especially developing countries, are facing some new challenges and opportunities after the "Kyoto Protocol" entered into force.China is currently in the process of heavy industrialization. High carbon energy consumption brings tremendous pressures to its economic development, environmental protection and greenhouse gas emissions. It has become an urgent problem to be solved to develop low carbon economy by reducing energy input and carbon emissions during sustainable economic and social development. Regional industrial structures, resource endowments and economic development levels of various regions are quite different in China. All provinces in China have carried out practices with low carbon economic development plans and appropriate paths in response to the national strategy of low carbon development. Jiangsu’s low carbon development has some constraints like its economic growth mode with high consumption, high pollution and high output, unbalanced regional economic development and imperfect system of low carbon development. There is no comprehensive and universally applicable mode or paths of low carbon development for Jiangsu to follow because of regional differences. The purpose of this study is to find out the appropriate mode and paths for Jiangsu’s low carbon development by analyzing and comparing the status of regional low carbon economy development in selected countries, provinces and Jiangsu as well as summarizing their practices.This study fisrtly made correlation analysis of climate variables and total factor productivity using annual changes of total factor productivity, daily precipitations and temperatures in 30 kilometers resolution. It turned out that there were strong seasonal correlations between annual changes of total factor productivity, daily precipitations and temperatures in different regions. It is important information for farmers and policy-makers in production, irrigation and policy making. Good adaptations may reduce negative impacts of climate change. The conclusion of this analysis verified the impacts of climate change on the production of sensitive sectors and the urgency of low carbon development. Secondly, an assessment system of low carbon development based on carbon cycle was built after reviewing related theories and researches of low carbon development. The assessment indexes include the stage of economic development, energy consumption structure, carbon intensity and sustainable development (including carbon sequestration). Its core is low carbon emission. Then the comparison analysis of regional low carbon development in 2000-2011 were made by analytic hierarchy process and principal components analysis. These selected regions include five countries (U.S., Germany, UK, Denmark and Japan), four provinces in China (Beijing, Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang) as well as Jiangsu. The results show that low carbon developments in selected countries were better than in China. These countries carried out low carbon development earlier than China. A set of relatively perfect and mature low carbon development strategies and paths have been formed in these countries and work well. In recent years, Jiangsu’s low carbon development stands in the middle level in the comparison with selected provinces and the total core of Jiangsu’s low carbon development is rising fast with its active practice of low carbon development. Thirdly, this study also analyzed Jiangsu’s foundation of economic growth and constraints of resources, environment and climate. Fourthly, it summarized and analyzed Jiangsu’s practices and achievements of low carbon development in the comparison with four selected provinces in China. The successful international and internal experience of low carbon development is good for Jiangsu. Finally, this study put forward that Jiangsu may choose optimized low-carbon economy development mode and promote its low carbon economy development through the adjustment of economic development mode, cracking resource constraints, strengthening environmental protection, accelerating development of carbon trade and carbon fund, and promoting regional low-carbon developments.