Study On Influences Of Rural Social Security On Consumption Behavior Of Rural Residents

Consumption is the main driving force of economic endogenous growth. In May 2014, Chinese president Xi Jinping first mentioned “new normal” inspecting in Henan and he pointed out that “new normal” would be the new governing idea. In October 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China convenes. The session clearly put forward that the economy should maintain in the high-middle speed growth. Consumption would play a foundation function for growth and we will put forth effort to expand consumer spending. To improve the livelihoods of countryside inhabitant as well as release the energy of rural consumption, the country has been promoting the rural social security work in the last ten years. The rural social security system reduces the indetermination of the living environment of countryside inhabitant and increases the consumption expenditure of countryside inhabitant. Although the social security level of inhabitant marked improvement, there are some problems such as the big gap of social security level and coverage between the different provinces as well as urban and rural. Whether the social security in rural areas generally promotes the overall consumption of countryside inhabitant or not? Whether the arrangement of the rural social security system and the influence on the consuming behavior of the countryside inhabitant has demonstration effect and convergence effect in geographic space or not? Whether the rural social security system influencing on the consuming behavior of the different classes of consumers and income classes in rural has difference or not? Are there any effects on specific related factors of social security to the consuming behavior of countryside inhabitant and what is it? How do the typical developed and developing countries arrange the social security? All these questions need to be answered before further deepen reform of the rural social security system.Combining consumption economics, demography, social security, rural economics and pubic administration, in the conceptual framework of “uncertainty-psychological expectation-behavioral responses”, mainly using consumption behavior theory, social stratification theory, social security theory and so on, the thesis will study the social security system influencing on villagers consumption according to the paradigm of scientific research of form verifying known to explore unknown. The thesis takes the countryside inhabitants(families and individuals) as the object of study. Taking the historical changes of the rural social security development after new China founded as the starting point, base on the survey data of social security and consumer spending investigating in Jingzhou, Yichang, Hubei province, other province and the country, the thesis analyzes time effect, spatial effect, demonstration effect and convergence effect of the social security influencing on consumption of rural residents in the theoretical and empirical aspects and the difference between the different social strata consumption of the influence of the social security. On that basis, base on practice and main experience of promoting the development of the social security in developed and developing countries, the thesis further analyzes how to strive to develop the social security project in our country. The research design follows the principle of integrating history and logic, using the combination of macroscopic and microcosmic analysis, positive approach and normative approach, quantitative and qualitative analysis.The thesis is divided into eight parts. The research conclusions are as follows:First, from the standpoint of institutional change and consumption development, the rural social security system promotes the consumption of rural residents as a whole. With the building the rural social security system gradually going into socialization and marketization, alternatively the potency of consumption of rural residents is released. After 1985, the socialist market economy system is gradually presented and built. The rural consumption market also starts. After controlling the factor of price, the level of rural social security and the consuming behavior of the basic necessities of the rural inhabitants are testified having positive relationship according to testing with the time series data. After the reform and opening-up policy, the consumption of rural inhabitants of basic necessities, educational entertainment and medical care is fast growth except a few years which there is emergencies. The influential intensity of the rural social security in different consumption is different. The improvement of the rural social security system and the promotion of security level stimulate greatly consumption of transportation and communication, educational entertainment and medical care of the rural inhabitants.Second, there is certain near demonstration effect in the influencing of the rural security on the consuming behavior of the rural inhabitants. The spatial effect makes the consumption level of the rural in the region constrict. The researches show shat last decade with the improvement of the rural security and other benefiting-farmers policy, the rural inhabitants gradually have stable anticipated income. The rural inhabitants show more rational consuming behavior. Anticipated income is as the intervening variable of the rural social security influencing on the consumption of the rural habitants. The influence coefficient isλ×b. The result of estimation is between 0.03 and 0.11. The influence of the rural social security to the consuming behavior of the rural inhabitants is low. Because the rural social security level is generally low. The space conductivity coefficient of the influence of the rural social security to the consuming behavior isλ×b×(I-ρW)-1. The coefficient indicates the influence of the rural social security to the consuming behavior has space demonstration effect. At the same time the conduction in the space of influence contribute to reduce the spatial difference of the consumption of the rural residents. But the demonstration effect has limited effect in the far spatial distance and distant economic relative areas. Spatial effect makes the consumption level of the rural convergent in the region inside.Third,the consuming behaviors of the rural habitants of different classes have differences. The influence of the social security to the consuming behaviors of the rural habitants of different classes has differences. The expenditure and the consumption percentage of different income bracket in different items have great difference. The influence of the social security to the food consumption of different classes is indifferent. It is negative correlation for clothing consumption and it has little difference. The influence on housing consuming, household equipment, transportation and communication consuming of lower income group is indifferent. It has positive impacts for high income bracket. It has crowding-out effect especially for lower income group. It has introduction effect for health care spending especially for lower income group. It shows that in the terms of promoting consumption the effect of “icing on the cake” of the social security is greater than the effect of “timely help” of it. If we want to enliven rural market and improve the rural inhabitants consuming, we should improve the income level of the rural inhabitants. In welfare economics, giving low income groups timely help contributes to social equity.Forth, the influence of different security projects, different levels of security and the related factors of consumer oneself to the consuming behavior of the rural habitants has differences. The sex and age of deciders of family consumption related action influence the household consumption level. The decision maker of risk seeker tends to immediate consumption but not precautionary saving. The number of child-rearing and old-age endowment significantly increases the expenditure of households of high consumption of the rural inhabitants. But the factor has no appreciable impact to expenditure of households of low consumption of the rural inhabitants. The influence of family income level to household consumption is largest. Different levels of income family significant consuming heterogeneity. The anticipated income has significantly influence on all of the consumption strata of the rural consuming behavior. The rural endowment insurance system and the cooperative medical insurance system do not have significant consuming introduction effect in high consuming classes and low consuming classes. Paying the pension insurance has no influence on the consumption level of high consumption of the rural inhabitants. But it has crowding-out effect in the low consumption of the rural inhabitants. At the same time, according to interviewing, it also further proves that social security can improve social overall revenue forecast and reduce consumer expectations. Then it promotes the immediate consumption. And the effect is more and more strengthen according to the urban and rural outer demonstration effect as well as countryside interior demonstration effect. The demonstration effect can also further promote the advance of social security system and effectively improve the consumption level of the rural.Fifth, Looking from the other countries social security law of development, if China wants to promote the rural social security developing healthfully and continuously, it need to carry out polycentric cooperative governance mode. Not only developed countries but also developing countries attach importance to the development of the social security and give full play to the function of the distribution of wealth “regulator”, “stabilizer” in social life and economic development “boosters”. China should be based on the political, economic and cultural practice and set up the fair developed ideas, carry out polycentric cooperative governance mode, based on the requirement of the rural residents social security practice, give full play to the government by law development, system of decision making and running, financing, financial supervision and so on. Play the market mechanism on the basis of the social security fund formation and operations. Play to the social participation role in providing social security services. Play an auxiliary role of families and individuals in the social security. It is important to promote the sustained and healthy development of the rural social security.In the combination of empirical analysis and draw lessons from other countries on the basis of the experience of the development of rural social security, Our country should improve the level of rural social security. Promote the development of social security of urban and rural areas. At the same time promote the government transfer payments to the more rural areas and the poor. Gradually establish a perfect rural social security system. Carry out the basic security policy to the poor. Promote social equality and justice. Improve the consumption level of the rural inhabitants. Ultimately promote the rural areas and the national economy sustained and healthy development.The main innovation of the study is embodied in that conscious responses, behavior choice and experience effect of micro level to rural residents and the changes of national macro policy are comprehensive researched. Cointegration test is used to analysis the influence of overall development of rural social security to rural residents’ consumption. Use the spatial panel model analysis on the impact of rural social security on the rural residents’ consumption space effect and demonstration effect. Use the threshold panel model analysis of rural social security impact on the rural residents’ consumption of different class differences. With microscopic survey data and Probit, quantile regression and other scientific measurement method study the influences of the social security of rural residents’ consumption of microscopic mechanism. 8 villages and towns in Yichang and Jingzhou, Hubei province are as an example. Research the local rural residents’ demographic characteristics, risk preference, income level, income, health care, social old-age security, social assistance, cognitive level, purchase intention and the basic situation of the consumption level, consumption structure, consumption willingness and other information. In demographic characteristics difference control, risk preference and the main variables and income, the influence of consumption difference, analyzed the effects of the social security of rural residents’ consumption and the different income levels. Through induction and comparison research method and literature, Japan, the United States, Australia and other developed countries and developing countries such as India, Brazil, as examples, combing the similarities and differences between the country’s rural social security system change, the difference of the system and the implementation of the system arrangement, summarize the successful experience.The study supports better to release the rural consumption potentiality and reinvigorating the rural economy as a whole. Help the management from the system innovation to reduce uncertainty in the countryside. Make the rural residents to better housing and happy. Form better expectations for the future. So it can improve the consumption level of the rural individual residents and the rural social welfare level.