The Study On The Opitmaltion Model For Power Grid Operational Risk Measurement, Early Warning And Prevention

Power companies not only face the risk of common ordinary business, and because of the special nature of the power business, making the power grid enterprises also face some unique risks and threats. Electricity supply demand balance in real time, not a lot of economic power storage, instantaneous time completion of all aspects. These features make the power grid enterprises face many uncertainties in the operation process. With the progress of China’s market-oriented reform of electricity monopoly power enterprises from traditional integration, offering separate, making the operation of the power grid enterprises have become independent entities. Grid business operations face a variety of risks, will be traded between power producers and grid companies, power companies and power users. With the deepening of reform, operation and management of power grid enterprises will face more uncertainty. In this paper, the use of risk management theory and methods, optimization theory, Systems Engineering Theory and Methods latest research results ERM grid enterprise grid system identification in energy saving, environmental protection and market environment, evaluation and control of risk measurement and optimization models.The main contents are as follows:(1)The article introduced the basic processes of grid operational risk management, including five aspects, namely, grid operation risk identification, grid operation risk analysis, grid operation risk measurement, power grid operation risk warning and power grid operation risk prevention, laid theoretical foundation for the subsequent chapter research.(2) Analysis model of grid operators risk relationship have been established. First, the introduction of the ideas and methods of the system to recognize the risk construct multi-dimensional risk identification model of power grid enterprise risk. Then, the classical Interpretative Structural Modeling is extended to fuzzy sets, building the analysis of model the grid operation risk link relation. Finally, according to the case study to verify the validity and applicability of the model, and to determine multivariate link relation of between grid operation risk factors.(3) Power grid operation risk measurement models have been established. From purchase of electricity side, transmission and distribution side, the sale of electricity side of the three links, were constructed in the power grid internal and outside province purchased electricity risk measurement analysis model, large consumers purchase electricity directly trading risk measurement models and power grid risk measurement sales analysis model, and through examples of analysis to verify the validity and applicability of the model, to determine the key factors that affect the risk of power grid enterprises, reflecting the actual situation of the operational risks and benefits, for the sake of the stable operation of the power grid control provides a good decision-making tool.(4) The establishment of the grid operators risk early warning model, specifically including grid operation risk warning hierarchical design model, grid operation risk indicator thresholds design models and generalized regression neural model of grid operation. Firstly, it introduced the basic concepts and classification method of risk warning, established power grid operation risk early warning system; then the introduction of AHP to determine the risk index weight, established the risk indicator threshold design model; finally, used of general regression nerve model was constructed the power grid operators risk warning model.(5) The article established the power grid operators risk control optimization model, including optimization model of the grid combination power purchase risk control, optimization model of the power grid enterprises spare capacity risk, optimization model of power grid electricity selling risk control and power grid risk control comprehensive four aspects, through case study to verify the validity and applicability of the model, for the sake of many aspects prevention and control risk of power grid operation provide basis for decision making.