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Research On The Impact Of Carbon Tariffs On Agricultural Trade Based On GTAP Model

Posted on:2017-01-07Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q GuoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330491456054Subject:Applied Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the climate change summit of the United Nations held on November 29th, 2015 in Paris, environmental protection, energy conservation and low-carbon economy has become the focus of the international attention once again. Facing with the problems of the climate change and global warming, the EU and the USA as well as other developed countries propose to levy carbon tariffs. The USA has passed a climate bill which will impose additional carbon tariffs on high carbon emission products of the countries that fail to implement reduction obligations from the year 2020. The development of modern agriculture has gradually made the Chinese agriculture an industry with high emissions, high pollution, high energy consumption and high materials consumption. Therefore, the world agricultural trade pattern may be completely changed if carbon tariffs are imposed by the USA, the EU, Japan and other developed countries.Once carbon tariffs are implemented under the pressure of global warming, they will produce an important and far-reaching impact on the global carbon emissions reduction and the world agricultural trade patterns in the future. So, what is the impact mechanism of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade; What is the impact of carbon tariffs on the global macro-economy and trade; What is the effect of carbon tariffs on agricultural sector under the macroeconomic background; What are the measures to be taken to address these impacts by the government and enterprises.Based on the literature review and the analyses of the current situation of the world’s and China’s agricultural trade, this paper conducted a research on the theoretical model of the impacts of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade, by using quantitative simulation in scenario analysis and the GTAP model. The full text of this paper consists of eight chapters.Chapter 1:Introduction. The main content of this chapter includes the research background, research significance and research objectives, research contents and structure of the paper, as well as research methodologies and technical route. Based on the current development of carbon tariffs at home and abroad, we identify the theme and research direction of the paper.Chapter 2:Literature Review. The main contents include:the literature reviews of the legality and feasibility of carbon tariffs implementation, the influence of carbon tariffs implementation on economics and trade, the effect of carbon tariffs implementation on carbon reduction, and the effect of carbon tariffs by using GTAP model. From the analysis of the literature the author found that:the theoretical model of the impacts of carbon tariff barriers on agricultural trade needs further study. The effect of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade is still in lack of a quantitative simulation analysisChapter 3:An analysis of current situation of China’s agricultural trade. The main aim of this chapter is to analyze relevant circumstances of China’s agricultural trade from different perspectives. The main contents include:an analysis of the development trend of China’s agricultural trade; that of the market structure of China’s agricultural trade; that of the product structure of China’s agricultural trade. Based on the descriptive statistics analysis, the paper pulls in the revealed comparative advantage index to analyze the situation and causes of China’s agricultural trade.Chapter 4:The theoretical analyses of the impacts of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade based on the background of the global carbon emissions reduction. The main aim of this chapter is to find the theoretical support for the notion that carbon tariffs will change agricultural trade from the classic theory of international trade. Firstly, a new connotation of carbon tariff under the background of global emissions reduction is defined. Secondly, through literature review of comparative advantage theoretical models, the author found that many scholars at home and abroad had expanded the theory of comparative advantage based on the research background and the object. At last, by using theoretical deduction and comparative analysis respectively, this chapter analyzed a new model when adding the carbon element into the Ricardian theory model in international agricultural trade; a new model when adding the carbon element into the H-O theory model of trade; and analyzed the actual impacts of comparative advantage in international agricultural products trade when adding the carbon element;Chapter 5:GTAP model introduction, Data processing, and scene setting. Firstly, we introduce the development of GTAP model, the inner structure; then regional and sector of GTAP8.0 database are divided, the impact of carbon tariffs are calculated; finally, the four scene of quantitative simulation analysis are set.Chapter 6:Carbon tariffs on global agricultural products trade. Agricultural products trade is significantly influenced by the environment of macroeconomic trade development. So, firstly using GTAP model simulation calculates the change extent from macro background. The contents includes:calculating the influence of carbon tariffs on the global GDP; calculating the effect of carbon tariffs on the global price index; calculating the effect of carbon tariffs on the global trade balance; calculating the changes of carbon tariffs on the global trade conditions; calculating the impacts of the changes of carbon tariffs on the world agricultural export market structure.Chapter 7:Carbon tariffs on agricultural trade. The main purpose of this chapter is the quantitative simulation analysis on the impact of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade. The contents include:calculating the impacts of the changes of import and export volume of carbon tariffs on China’s agricultural products; calculating the output change of carbon tariffs on China’s agricultural products; calculating the impacts of the changes of carbon tariffs on China’s agricultural export market structure.Chapter 8:Conclusions and outlook. The main aim of this chapter is to summarize the research conclusions and induct innovation points of the paper, put forward relevant policy suggestions, and point out the limitations and future research directions.This paper constructed a theoretical model of the effect of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade, and simulated the effects of carbon tariffs on the world economy and agri-trade when the EU, the US and Japan imposed carbon tariffs independently and simultaneously, with the following conclusions and policy recommendations:The main conclusions:(1) Ricardian theory model will change after adding the carbon element; (2) the H-O theoretical model will be reversed after adding the carbon element; (3) the comparative advantage theory model should also be readjusted dynamically under the background of the global emissions reduction; (4) carbon tariffs will pose a huge impact on environment of Chinese agricultural products trade, the developed countries will benefit while the developing countries will lose; (5) carbon tariffs will make total world exports of agricultural products decline slightly. There is a most negative effect in "All20" scenario; (6) carbon tariffs will make the share of total world exports of agricultural products decline, but to increase the share of the developing countries, which improve the structure of world trade of agricultural products with a positive effect; (7) carbon tariffs will increase agricultural production and exports of China and slightly reduce imports; (8) carbon tariff impact on China’s exports of agricultural market structure. The market share of Chinese agricultural products will decline, flowing into the non-taxing countries and regions.The main policy recommendations of this paper include:(1) improving the overall agricultural trade environment; (2) expanding actively the domestic demand to reduce dependence on foreign trade in agricultural trade; (3) enhancing the development of the emerging markets, achieve diversified agricultural trade strategies; (4) promoting carbon tariffs on domestic enterprises actively; and (5) readjusting vigorously the agricultural trade structure.The main innovations of this paper:(1) Explored and built a theoretical model of the impacts of carbon tariffs on agricultural trade under the background of the global carbon emissions. In this paper, based on the classical Ricardian theory and H-O theory model, we use the methods of theoretical deduction and comparative analysis to analyze and build the new Ricardian model and the new H-O theory model when adding the carbon element. Expanding the traditional Ricardian model and H-O theoretical model, the theory of comparative advantage is enriched and developed.(2) Analyzed the trend of China’s agricultural trade and the root causes of change by empirical analysis. Firstly, based on comparative advantage RCA index formula, the overall trend of the comparative advantage of China’s agricultural trade is analyzed. Further, the changes in the RCA index are decomposed regarding structural effects, in order to analyze the reasons for changes in comparative advantage of agricultural trade. Finally, the change from RCA competitive effects of decomposition can be decomposed with respect to the effect of changes in the international market competitiveness, to analyze the causes of changes in comparative advantage of trade in agricultural products.(3) By using the GTAP model, this paper quantitatively estimated the impact of carbon tariffs on the global and China’s agricultural trade. According to the basic structure of current world economy, we used the latest version of GTAP8.0 database and divided the whole world into eight regions in consideration of research need. In order to highlight the focus of this article, we merged non-agricultural sectors so that every country economic sectors were divided into 6 sectors. Calculation model of impacts of carbon tariff on agricultural trade was constructed based on the relationship between carbon tariffs and carbon emissions. Using scenario analysis approach, this research estimated that under the condition of imposing carbon tariffs at the level of 20 dollar/t CO2 (carbon dioxide per tonne) by the United States, Japan, the European Union, or by all these countries (districts), what would happen to the trade of agricultural products.
Keywords/Search Tags:Carbon Tariffs, Agricultural Trade, Carbon Emission Reduction, GTAP Model, Comparative Advantage
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