| Since the K yoto Protocol came into force, the issue of carbon leakage caused from international trade has drawn wide concern. Consider the case of France government intends to levy carbon tariffs on imports from non-signatories. Another example can be provided by the proposed policy in the U.S. government to impose carbon tariffs on imports from C hina in 2020, which will undoubtedly exert direct and far-reaching impact on Sino-American trade as well as economic development of both countries.According to this, the amount of embodied carbon emitted by products, exported from C hina to the U.S., was calculated based on Input-output analysis firstly in this paper. And then by implying the GTAP model, the policy effects of American taxation on high carbon-emitting products imported from C hina were simulated, and the influence on Sino-American trade and economic was obtained.The results show that the high embodied carbon emissions of industrial manufactured goods industries concentrated in metal products manufacturing, chemical industry, non- metallic mineral products industry, other manufacturing, machinery and equipment manufacturing industry. The analysis of the GTAP model result supports the conclusion that the carbon tariff policy that the U.S. intends to implement will raise the domestic price of imported goods, reduce imports, increase trade balance, improve terms of trade by limited range and increase social welfare. But with the gradual increase in the tax rate, it will result in a net loss of social welfare. At the same time, it will pose potential threat on Chinese economy by reducing Chinese exports of high carbon-emitting good, thereby boosting prices in internatio nal market. As a consequence, a decline in GDP as well as social welfare, deteriorations in terms of trade, reduces the trade balance and drops in international competitiveness may be activated. To reverse the trend and avoid adverse consequences, some effective policy suggestions were proposed in the end. |
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