Study On Chinese Coal Industry Cycle Fluctuation And Precontrol Strategy

Coal is the main energy in China and coal consumption accounts for about 70% of total primary energy consumption of our country. Over the years, the coal industry cyclical fluctuation is bigger. Especially since 2012, the coal industry is facing a serious imbalance between supply and demand, the development of the coal industry facing severe challenges. To research the cyclical fluctuations of coal industry is very important for protecting China’s energy security and policy-making. This paper basing on the research results of economic fluctuations and combining the development of coal industry, explore the China’s coal industry of the periodic fluctuation theory. Paper main work and innovation includes the following aspects:First, the systematic exposition of the economic cycle and industry cycle fluctuation theory, focusing on the use of CF filtering method, analysis the economic variables which impact the coal industry in China. Analysis showed that the coal industry in China existing the periodic characteristics. There are seven cycles from 1966 to 2013, each cycle existing 6--9 years. Every cycle’s wave frequency is higher and having large amplitude and development trend of deviation, which means the coal industry development is not stable.Second, this article based on the Hotelling model to construct the "best path" model of the coal industry development. According to the model study, there is "optimal path" of the coal industry development, each of the coal resource development having "optimal yield”. Comparing the actual situation of China’s coal industry development to the "best path" conditions, we conclude that the coal development in China is "non-optimal", deviation "optimal path" and invalid fluctuations.Third, by studying the mechanism model of Influences on Coal Industry’s fluctuation, the present paper find out the key factors which influence the coal industry fluctuation are national economic development, coal demand, resources development policies, coal industry investment, coal price, resources development profit, industry competitiveness, etc. There is a close relationship between coal industry and factors such as coal industry capital investment, labor input, capital profit level, industry competitive degree, coal price, coal resource tax; while the above factors increase 1%, the coal industry output will increase 0.38%、0.32%、0.13%、-0.14%、0.08%、0.13%, respectively.Last, by establishing the theoretical model of “Multiple Factors’ Influences on Coal Industry Fluctuation”, the present paper makes predictions on the multiple factors and indexes which influence the coal industry’s fluctuation; and by combining the current situation of coal industry development, choose the coal supply-demand ratio index which reflects the coal supply-demand balance condition as the main index for forewarning. The analysis result indicates that, during the period of 2016-2019, China’s Coal supply-demand ratio will be between 1.05 and 1.10, which will be under the loose-supply condition, but both numbers are close to its ceiling limit value; during the period of 2019-2025, China’s Coal supply-demand ratio will be between 1.10 and 1.16, which will be under the supply-exceeds-demand condition; in the year of 2030, China’s Coal supply-demand ratio will be between 1.20, which will be under the extremely overcapacity condition. This illustrates that, in the current development path, the coal supply-demand fluctuation will be fiercer, and the overcapacity pressure will increase. It is necessary to pre-control the coal industry in advance, so that the possible severe fluctuating of coal industry will be stabilized. By analyzing the multiple factors which influence the coal industry’s fluctuation, it is showed that the key point of coal industry’s fluctuation pre-control is to adjust and control the coal industry capital investment, coal industry competition degree and resources development profit level.Based on the above research conclusions, the present paper proposes some policy suggestions on how to stabilize China coal industry’s fluctuation, which are mainly from the angles of coal industry investment pre-control, coal industry competition degree pre-control and coal resources development profit level pre-control.