The Investigation Of Modeling Electron Flux At Erth Radiation Belts

In this thesis, we have shortly described the basic situation of the earth's radiation belts and introduced some electron terrestrial trapped models. The main work in the thesis includes two aspects:First, based on a new class of geomagnetic pulsation parameters, we established a new forecasting model for relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO), which provided relativistic electron flux predictions of a day in advance. Second, a basic electron flux model at radiation belt has been establishment, which could be more sophisticated in the future.Geomagnetic field data observed by Memambetsu (L=1.57) observatory are used to extract Pi1-2 pulsations. The relativistic electron data at geostationary orbit are from GOES satellites observation. Based on the relativistic electron acceleration mechanism, we investigated the relationship between geomagnetic pulsation parameters and relativistic electron flux at GEO orbit with 38 geomagnetic storms during 2004.01 to 2006.12 to find out the best geomagnetic pulsation parameters.Based on the selected geomagnetic pulsations parameters, referenced linear prediction filter, a multi-parameter nonlinear function has been established. The Levenberg-Marquardt least square fitting is used to fit this function and Kalman filter technique is used to correct the results of this function. Finally, a new prediction model for relativistic electron flux at GEO orbit has been established. We use data in 2004 to train this model. The prediction efficiency of this year is 0.73 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.85. In the test with data during 2005-2006, the prediction efficiency is 0.69 and the linear correlation coefficient is 0.83, which is a significant promotion Compared with Persistence model and closed to the "imitation REFM model". The results show that the ULF (Ultra-low frequency) wave acceleration mechanism is one of main mechanisms for relativistic electron acceleration. On the other hand, the geomagnetic pulsation parameters can be very good instead of the solar wind speed parameter, which would help to establish a new relativistic electron flux prediction model with ground stations.Using CRRES/MEA electron flux data, we construct a preliminary terrestrial trapped model, which is consistent with the CRRESELE model. The results indicate that the modeling method and programs for the model are reasonable, no major flaws existing. This would help us to build a more sophisticated model in the future.