Based On The Synchronous Orbit Magnetic Field, The Prediction Of Relativistic Electron Flux

The geosynchronous orbit zone is in the outer radiation belts, where a large number of relativistic electrons distribute. Relativistic electron known as"killer electrons"is a major factor of spacecraft malfunction because of its speed close to light's. Therefore, prediction of the relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is very important for mitigating the associated risk to spacecraft and space environment research.In this paper, we found that the input parameters of several previous prediction models of the geosynchronous relativistic electrons flux are solar wind parameters (from ACE satellite), and forecast value is daily average of relativistic electron flux as we are discussing these models. There are some potential risks in these previous models by reason that they are too dependent on ACE satellite, and can not reflect day and night fluctuate and small time scale changes of electrons flux because prediction value is daily average. For these shortcomings, P-component of magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit is chosen to be the input of the prediction model, and the outputs are average hourly flux on four typical times with 24 hours later. These four typical time are midnight (23:31-0:30),morning (5:31-6:30),noon (11:31-12:30),evening (17:31-18:30) of local time. The relativistic flux of the model have two energy spectrums which are >0.6MeV and >2MeV.In this paper,firstly, the operating characteristics of radiation belt particles and the relativistic electron flux origin, acceleration and loss mechanisms have be discussed. Then we analyze magnetic field and electron flux data from GOES11 and LANL and find that P-component of magnetic field and 50～70keV is negative correlated, but also synchronous. We also find that low energy electron flux is positively correlated with the high-energy segment, and the former changes more than 24 hours before the latter. So we can deduce that relativistic electron flux is negatively correlated with P-component of the magnetic field and the latter changes more than 24 hours before the former, which provides a theoretical basis for prediction of relativistic electron flux 24-hour later base on magnetic field. Finally, polynomial fit is applied to establish prediction model and the average prediction efficiency of the model is 0.6862. Prediction result of noon time relativistic electron is most important, which reached a peak of the day, and its prediction efficiency: > 0.6MeV electron flux is 0.7708, >2MeV electron flux is 0.7069.