The Real Estate Transactions Game And Financial Risk

In the 1980s the end of the early 1990s the economic cooperation and development organizations of the developed countries and newly industrialized countries, it experienced similar periods in real estate real estate development and prosperity of the stage after all a bubble, with japan "bubble" economy and the economic depression and southeast asia financial crisis.The most typical.Property market is a very complicated, real estate market goods are generally not have the goods are extremely complex features, such property and the features of the property prices has made decisions more goods or property is generally more complicated. Therefore, seize the property of the characteristics of properties for us to understand the decision of the property prices and volatility, it is important that theory.This paper is based on the background to the real estate properties, expectations, various interest groups of the game and financial support for the camera to each other, with the real estate and the volatility of the analysis of the property bubble and a mechanism for the inspection and index system for research.This paper studies the main content:For the first games for the real estate properties for work, and gives us the real estate, the property with the activities of the rich, and little from durable consumer goods and production factors that allows both instruments of evolution. Over all the bubble economy has reviewed and to identify their characteristics, i think that the consistency and groups in the early acts of a bubble, the commonness of the bubble of the two characteristics, the financial support for the excess has become a prominent feature in the theory of evolution. Basically, with these changes are consistent.Real estate investment and speculation leads to great fluctuations in property prices and speculation in real estate investment is the root of the property, we hold real estate the assets of the property, the price fluctuation of the expected effect of the olympic games support is expected to explore. The first to the expected pattern was analysed and pointed out that there was a real estate market price fluctuations are in market investors are more obvious, self-propelled expected; And from the limit logos of mind, coming, market information of the show——economic conditions of the two of the paper analyzed in addition to push the possibility that is based on real estate and between banking and moral hazard and adverse selection based on open and financial liberalization of financial management system of the changes made to push out in the final effect. And from the limit logos of mind, coming, market information of the show——economic conditions of the two of the paper analyzed in addition to push the possibility that is based on real estate and between banking and moral hazard and adverse selection based on open and financial liberalization of financial management system of the changes made to push out in the final effect.From the description of the phenomenon and several theories of financial support has been able to see over in the real estate bubble of the important role. Financial support over the context of the real estate bubble formation mechanism? This is a worthy and must be explored. The real estate market supply, demand, price formation process of a typical game features, this article then discussed the use of information economics, game theory-related knowledge, especially the incomplete information game theory (the statie Bayesian game) and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (Bayesian Nash equilibrium), the angle from the game of supply and demand in the property market and prices are described and analysis, decision making model based on game theory to discuss the game between the various interest groups. The central government and local governments, real estate, home buyers and financial institutions, representing different interest groups, in their different positions, participate in and influence the results of square multi-stage dynamic game. By constructing the context of financial support over the formation and operation of the real estate bubble in the belief model, market uncertainty model, feedback effects and speculative behavior model to analyze in the context of the formation mechanism of the real estate bubble. Fluctuations in the real estate bubble real estate market, one of the main idea, major impact on the economy as follows:social wealth effects, effects of the economic cycle, inflation effects, resource allocation effects, psychosocial effects and so on. Economic effects of the real estate bubble Generally speaking, the negative effect than the positive effect, how to judge the real estate bubble, real estate bubbles in time to make early warning is a very important issue. By the last part of this article focus on the financial risk- the real estate business cycle stages and performance discussed, financial support and the relationship between fluctuations in real estate. Over-reliance on real estate construction for the investigation led to price increases in financial support mechanism, and further subdivided with no investment speculators speculators and investment both cases, building model comparison study. Real estate bubble burst has a great influence on the financial stability, including liquidity risk, credit risk, legal risk of collateral and systemic risks, and how future national policy and the development of rational industrial development against the financial risk to make some useful suggestions.Innovations:1. Theory of innovation:(1)Tentative hypothesis put forward over the financial support, from the perspective of financial support over the real estate bubble formation mechanism, enriched and developed the real estate bubble theory and optimal control theory of optimal path problem of financial support. This article also economic effects on the real estate bubble theory in depth.(2) Real estate business cycle theory concerns the angle of the key financial risks.(3)Proposed rate of housing prices is expected to derivation and use of indicators. Expected rate of housing prices is an indicator to determine the existence of bubbles is very important indicators. In this paper, the premise of some assumptions, by sale of the rental market and housing market equilibrium model of arbitrage between the establishment of, respectively, from the perspective of consumption and investment are two different calculation is derived and presented the expected rate of housing prices in the program, through further study found in some cases, existing prices and the expected rate of housing prices reverse changes phenomenon. 2. Methodological innovation:(1) Using Game Theory and knowledge of the theory of information economics, especially the incomplete information game theory (the statie Bayesian game) and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (Bayesian Nash equilibrium), from the information asymmetry, beliefs, and feedback effects the perspective of the real estate market supply and demand and prices described and analyzed to construct a multi-stage game model, discuss the game between the real estate interests.(2)Use econometric analysis of financial support over the formation of deep and real estate bubbles, the Chinese real estate bubble and the attempt to conduct empirical analysis of non-foam, estimated measure of financial support over the threshold, and using unit root and co- degree of integration test methods and test methods for speculative real estate bubble for empirical analysis.3. Measures of innovation.Financial support in order to prevent excessive real estate bubble to avoid the occurrence of this paper, targeted measures, including strict implementation of the national real estate credit business regulations, establish a personal credit system, the real estate tax system designed to strengthen the monitoring and real estate prices real estate development financing channels for enterprises to expand and improve the competitiveness of enterprises.