The Research On Financial Risk Assessment Of The Chinese Listed Real Estate Companies Based On Survival Analysis

In recent years, as the constant development of economics in our country and the adjustment of consuming structure, the real estate industry develops rapid and has gradually become an important part of the economic structure. Because the real estate business starts lately and has poor foundation. Many real estate companies heavily rely on bank loans and face tremendous financial risk. The real estate industry has some characteristics, such as large investment, long investment cycle and influenced by macroeconomic policy. The financial risk has become a major problem which needs to consider the real estate company. So the research on the real estate industry has important practical value and significance.In this article, based on the basic theoretical of financial risk about the real estate companies it selects all real estate companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listing as the initial investigative sample. It selects 97companies after deleting the companies which mark ST before 2006 or re-mark ST after returning normally within two years. It builds the financial risk assessment system including the first shareholding ratio and market risk and so on. After excluding the related element then carries out survival analysis to the financial dates from 2006 to 2010 of the real estate listed companies with the SPSS. This is the Cox regression. By the Cox regression, the paper establishes the financial risk assessment model of the listed real estate company.The results show that: (1) The current ratio and total assent growth rate are the important indicators of financial risk assessment of the real estate companies. (2) The fist shareholding ratio and market risk are not significant, when these non-financial indicators evaluate the financial risk of the real estate companies under survival analysis. (3) The survival analysis for the financial risk assessment of the real estate companies has a better prediction. (4) Most of estate companies is in the normal level of financial risk. Finally, for the empirical results bring forward the management strategies about the real estate companies, such as the establishment of the early warning on financial risk, the quality of employees, the development of many methods about raising funds.