Research On Geological Disaster Survey And Zoning In Jiiin And Forecasting And Early Warning System Construction

Geological environmental condition is complicated in Jilin Province. Geologicaldisasters happen frequently during flood season, and bring about great damage topeoples' life and property. This thesis relies on the Scientific Development Project ofJilin Province with the title of the study on forecasting and early warning ofgeological disasters method in flood season (ID:20080453), and is funded by theResearch on Geological Disasters of Mountainous Hilly Region Fund Project of theMinistry of Land and Resources and treasury with the title of the study on geologicalhazard survey and zoning comprehensive study in Jilin Province (Ministry of Landand Resources letter [2008] No.76), based on the research of geological disastersdevelopment characteristics in Jilin province and the relationship between geologicaldisasters and influencing factors, the susceptible regions of hazard are zoned, andaccording to the result, the control regions are zoned. Geological disaster forecastingand early warning systems is an important means of disaster prevention andmitigation. In this paper, forecasting and early warning of Jilin Province system isconstructed from the following six aspects: study on the model of forecasting andearly warning, software development of the systems, forecasting and early warning,visualization of consultation systems, product release of the systems, comprehensiveinformation platform of the geological environment of Jilin Province and geologicaldisaster monitoring and prevention system of Jilin Province.The general trend of terrain is high in the south-east, and low in the north-westin Jilin province. Black Mountains which is transfixion the province, as theboundary, divides the province into two large regions of the eastern mountains andwestern Songliao Plain; From the view of geography, Jilin Province is divided intothe Sino-Korean platform of the southern region andTianshan-Xing'an geosynclinefold zone of the northern region; the province precipitation reduces from southeast to northwest, and annual rainfall is roughly between300~1400mm, the distribution isextremely uneven. The regional distribution characteristic is more mountainous, lessplains, and medium basins.A comprehensive study of Jilin Province geological hazard survey and zoningare carried out. Base on the1:10000geological hazard survey and zoninginformation of Jilin province-38counties (cities, districts), the overallcharacteristics of the geological disasters are analyzed in the province. Therelationships between geological disasters and the topography, the rock and soiltypes, geological formations, vegetation, human engineering activities and rainfallare studied. On this basis,"preference ratio method" and "entropy function method"make the optimum combination to determine the weight coefficient, and extensionevaluation model based on the optimal combination of empowerment theory is usedto divide the province's geological disaster-prone areas. Comprehensiveconsideration of division results, factors such as economic and social developmentplan, the prevention zoning of the province will be divided, and the division resultscan effectively guide the Jilin Province to carry out the disaster prevention andmitigation.Main results are as follows:(1) According to the data of county (city) geological hazard survey and zoningin Jilin province, by the end of2009, a total number of geological disasters of3915,and64people died, the direct economic loss of1,172,916,100yuan; a total numberof potential geological disasters of3418, and the threat population of74,005, thepotential economic loss of991,108,000yuan. By type: landslides of191, collapses(including unstable slopes) of2108, debris flow of1407, ground subsidence of169,cracks of40. By size: giant of27, account for0.69%; large of82, account for2.09%;medium-sized of258, account for6.59%; small of3548, account for90.62%.(2) The geographical distribution characteristics of geological disasters are veryobviously. Due to the different conditions of geological environment, humanengineering activities, weather and other causal factors, distribution of geologicaldisasters are uneven. The old ridge mountains (Tonghua, Baishan) have the most geological disasters; the next is low mountain in Yanbian and the middle hilly region(Jilin, Liaoyuan). The disasters in high plains (Changchun, Siping) region, thewestern plains (Matsubara) and Daxinanling hilly area (Baicheng) are less. On thewhole, the density of geological disasters in the province from southeast tonorthwest gradually decreased, the damage degree is from heavy to light.(3) Main influence factors which are closely related to geological disasters aretopography, rock and soil types, geological formations, vegetation, humanengineering activities and rainfall. Geological disasters often generate by more thanone factor. The topography is one of the conditions to determine the degree ofgeological hazards; type and properties of rock mass determine the scale, distributionand failure mode of geological disasters; geological structure can form a variety ofstructural surface, it may be the control plane for geological disasters; vegetation andmore performance in a single point of disaster; human engineering activities andrainfall are the important inducing factors in geological disasters.(4) Extension evaluation model based on the optimal combination ofempowerment theory is used to divide the province's geological disaster-prone areas.,the province will be divided into four regions and eleven sub-regions: there are fourregions in disaster high-prone areas, and the area is34059km2, accounted for18.17%of the total area; there are four regions in disaster-prone areas, and the area is64976km2, accounting for34.67%of the total area; there are two regions in disasterlow-prone areas, and the area of37391km2, accounting for19.95%of the total area;there is one region in disaster non-prone areas, and the area of50974km2, accountingfor27.2%of the total area.(5) Comprehensive consideration of division results, factors such as economicand social development plan, the prevention zoning of the province will be dividedinto two emphasis prevention area, the area is25180km2, accounting for13.43%ofthe total area; four second-emphasis prevention area, the area is74476km2,accounting for39.75%of the total area; and one general prevention area, the area is87746km2, accounting for46.82%of the total area.Geological disaster forecasting and early warning system of Jilin province is built. The work comprise the following several aspects:(1) On the basis of geological disaster-prone areas, antecedent effective rainfalland the degree of geological disasters, the geological hazard warning model isestablished. The size of the early warning index reflects the warning level, and thenthe forecast results will be published. The2011flood season application results showthat the model meets of geological disasters in Jilin Province, forecasting and earlywarning software is very convenient in the flood season, can enhance the capacity ofdisaster prevention of Jilin province.(2) The visualization of the consultation system is built to improve the productrelease system of geological disaster forecasting and early warning. Theestablishment of the system not only has the image-voice capabilities, but also hasthe resource sharing and the perfect combination of image-Voice-data. The way ofreleasing the product standardizes the forecasting and early warning work.(3) The forecasting and early warning software is based on MAPGIS6.7Professional desktop platform and used the Microsoft Visual Studio C++. Thesoftware is able to support functions such as the grid layer of professional space, thegeneration of effective rainfall equivalent, the professional space on overlay andprofessional model and effect map preview of the geological hazard warning.(4)Build a comprehensive information platform of the geological environmentof Jilin Province, and this platform is based on the technology of WebGIS and WebServices. The vast amount of data is managed by using the multi-level structural design. Through the data server, GIS server and Web server, the functions of query and forecasting geological disasters in the province are realized.(5) Geological disaster monitoring and prevention system is built in JilinProvince. The composed functional modules of the system are publicityannouncement of the geological disaster prevention and management, news feeds,policies and regulations, prevention knowledge, geological disaster monitoring andprevention system, day-to-day management, disaster quick report, weather warningand system management. The system is capable of service and application in thedaily management of the geological disasters. In summary, on the basis of the collection of Jilin Province1:100000geologicalhazard survey and zoning, this paper did a depth study on geological hazard division.Meanwhile, based on the research, the construction of geological disaster forecastingand early warning systems in Jilin province was carried out. The research of thissubject is of great significance to enhance the capability of geological disastersprevention and mitigation in Jilin province.