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Research On Context Reconstruction Model Of Unconventional Emergency

Posted on:2012-07-29Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y X WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1111330362950243Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China is the one of the few countries with serious natural disasters in the world, all types of natural disasters to the social production and people's lives caused huge losses. Also, because the increasing complexity of the social system and the growing dependence of the correlation, localized and routine emergencies more easily turned into huge, serious harm unconventional emergencies. Thus, emergency response intensified the urgency and complexity. Unconventional emergencies occur frequently, decision-making at all levels of government and relevant actors pose a serious challenge. In order to improve our government and society unconventional emergency response capacity, and promote the development of emergency management science, emergency management has become a cutting-edge interdisciplinary research topic.Typical characters of unconventional emergency include difficult to predict, the whole process and mechanism of the occurrence and development of complex and evolved secondary derivative events, the consequences of causing serious harm, the response is "situational dependence". Therefore, "prediction - response" paradigm based on risk management in the conventional emergency response is facing unprecedented challenges. Unconventional emergency research is taking a major evolution from the traditional "prediction - response" to "scenario - response". Building "scenario - response" is an important research objective with conventional type theory of emergency management research. Therefore, this study in the current context, has in-depth studied and defined the the concept of "scenario - response" system-related content, based on the analysis of the dynamic context association between scenarios, the establishment of emergency situations unconventional expression and describes the system, research-based emergency situations the reconstruction of unconventional evolutionary theory method has great theoretical and practical significance.In this paper, relevant research results at home and abroad were sort out and summarized, based on the unconventional theory of emergency management, disaster system theory, scenario analysis and the situation calculus theory as the theoretical basis. From the in-depth analysis of non-conventional emergency scenarios, situation and other important concepts to proceed, the use of informatics, ontology, evolutionary analysis, quantitative and qualitative research methods and other constructed for the "scene - response" unconventional conflict made the event description and event reconstruction scenario analysis framework. In-depth study of the situational factors and the expression of formal description method, multi-level network design scenarios, and based on emergency situations of unconventional theories and methods of reconstruction " scenario-resposne " the system theory and implementation of key issues.Firstly, in the "scenario-resposne" paradigm framework defines unconventional emergency scenarios, situations and events and other important concepts of reconstruction of meaning and mutual relationship; unconventional emergencies catastrophe theory and the evolution of life cycle theory of integration perspective, the evolution from the perspective of context, analysis of incidents in a number of unusual features in its evolution and the internal mechanism, and the corresponding analysis of the various stages of the situational analysis of the characteristics of structure and evolution of demand; response to these needs, respectively, from non-conventional emergency access to information, event description and event reconstruction of the evolution of three levels of analysis summarizes the situation to solve practical problems reconstructed, and the expression of elements from the context and description of methods, context and description of the network structure, event reconstruction method and the graphical simulation of the angle of such scenarios based on an unconventional system of emergency reconstruction analysis.Secondly, the chain of events that unusual incident as one of the elements typical characteristics, and based on the hazard, hazard-affected bodies and the preganant environment sorting, the composition of the scene. Then in the disaster chain based on the theory, the impact of the introduction of decision-making role of factors as elements, including scenario analysis, scenario transform the role of situational factors and transition probabilities of the elements of composition, and gives the context of the ontology design description. Elements for the situation, analyze the information needs of the situation and event information sources, then build a knowledge-oriented emergency situations unconventional methods of information resource integration. According to conventional emergencies stage characteristics and constraints, building the factor - state - the event network model three scenarios, within the context of a hierarchical relationship between the two levels of evolution and the relationship between the structure of unconventional conflict.Again, in the case of incomplete information context, the establishment of rules based on reasoning and situational context of events logical calculus reconstruction is provided.Again, the proposed reconstruction of context visualization methods is provided. Finally, as the case, with processing of information from the grid, context description and analysis of network mapping, context reconstruction and other angles in the complex network is studied.
Keywords/Search Tags:unconventional emergency, contex reconstruction, scenario - response, context network, correlation analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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