Research On The Key Techniques Of Scenario Recognition In "Scenario-Response" Emergency Decision-making

When an emergency occurs,it often brings huge losses to the lives and property of the people,causing serious damage to the natural environment or social environment.Due to the sudden,complex and dynamic nature of the emergencies,the traditional "prediction-response"emergency decision-making model is not effective.In order to further reduce the harm of emergencies and deal with the emergencies timely and effectively,"the scenario-response"emergency decision-making model is being gradually taken seriously.However,due to the serious dependence of "scenario-response " model on scenario information,it becomes a key link to determine the success or failure of emergency disposal by timely and accurately identifying the scenario information of emergencies.For this purpose,this paper takes the emergency scenario identification as the research object and studies the key technologies such as scenario information constitutional elements of emergency,generation of scenario information requirements,object extraction and expression in scenario elements,and scenario deduction,which has important theoretical and practical significance.Through the application of Grounded theory,the constitutional elements of emergency scenario information are determined,including five primary elements and seventeen secondary elements of the disaster-affected body,disaster-bearing body,external environment,emergency resources,and emergency activities,and the object of scenario information collection is clarified,and the logic relationship and action mechanism of each element are analyzed by the interpretation structure model.Based on the characteristics of time constraints,large quantity,small size and strong dynamic qualities,the automatic generation method and matching algorithm of information demand based on the principle of information mapping were proposed,which realized the quick match between the emergency type and the information demand template,and based on this,the process of information gathering of emergency scenario is constructed,and the problem of automatic allocation between collecting tasks is realized.According to the internal logic of the extraction and expression of scenario factor objects,the extraction and expression model of the scenario factor object of the emergency is constructed,including the preprocessing of attribute data,further identification and extraction of some objects,determination of key attributes,and expression of scenario factors.Based on this,for the problem of interval estimation and multi-source conflict of object attribute data,the clustering analysis algorithm of multi-dimensional uncertainty data based on interval number and the conflict resolution algorithm of multi-source heterogeneous data based on prior knowledge are proposed respectively.In this paper,for the special reasons of the inability to identify and extract the scenario elements objects,the object recognition and extraction method of visual interpretation and computer image processing is proposed and the effectiveness of the method is verified by the earthquake disaster-affected bodies.In order to identify the object attributes that are critical to the decision making,a method for determining the key attributes of scenario objects based on entropy weight method is proposed.Taking a gas pipeline explosion as an example,the feasibility of the method is verified empirically.Finally,based on the theory of knowledge element,this paper puts forward the expression method of scenario elements.Dividing the emergency scenario into the four key elements through dynamic perspective:scenario conditions(S),emergency activities(B),external environment(H),and emergency resources(M),this paper analyzes the occurrence and evolution mechanism,patterns and paths of emergency scenario.Using the dynamic Bayesian network method to construct the emergency scenario network and the deduction model,realizing the reappearance and trend of simulation implementation of the emergency and taking the explosion of the "7.16" Dalian oil pipeline in 2010 as an example,the correctness and validity of the above model is verified empirically.The above research work system analyzes the concept,content and main links of the scenario identification of emergency,and the corresponding ideas and methods were proposed for key links such as scenario information composition,scenario information requirement generation,object extraction and expression in scenario elements,and scenario deduction,etc.Taking an oil and gas pipeline explosion as an example,an empirical test was conducted.Further enriching and expanding the theory and method of emergency decision-making,it is of great realistic reference value for timely and effective disposal of emergencies,reducing the harm and losses caused by emergencies.