Study On Regional Typical Substance And Energy Metabolism Simulation Modeling And Optimization Analysis

Resources and energy shortages, resulted from rapid economic growth, has beenthe major challenge for China to achieve sustainable development. is facing today.Nowadays, China's urbanization process has accelerated, industrialization process isabout to enter late-industrialization stage, and consumption structure has upgraded aswell. These three driving forces have promoted the rapid evolution of regionalmaterial and energy metabolism. Urban region, as the agglomeration of populationand economic activities, inherently, has become the key of regional metabolism, therequirement for a powerful analysis methodology and an optimization policy tools areof great ugency.In this thesis, three methodologies for regional metabolism analysis aredeveloped based on economics and statistics model. First, A methodology based onPLS-Path model is established to analyze the driving forces pattern of regionalmetabolism, section data of282cities were used to identify the model, the resultshowed that agglomeration effect have the most obvious dematerialization effort; andindustrial structure has a complex impact, the growth of secondary industry will raisethe regional resources consumption intensity, while the impact of tertiary industry, i.e.service industry, is generally neutral, the expected absolute dematerialization effort isnot observed; governence and transportation infrastructure do not show obviousaffection. To analyze the evolution pattern of regoinal metabolism, ELES model isintroduced to traditional MFA framework, the case study of Suzhou city revealed that,urbanization is the main driving force for construction material metabolism evolution,while industrialization promote the metabolism evolution of industiral material andsemi-manufactured goods, and the metabolism evolution of biomass and consumergoods are mainly affected by consumption upgrade. Based on resourceproductivity theory and circular economy theory, analysis and assessmentmethodologies are established for internal structure evolution of regionalmetabolism, according to the accounting results of forward material flow, reverse material flow and interregional material flow, indicators are introduced to reflect theregional resources productivities and circular economy development, and evaluate theinternal structure of regional metabolism. Suzhou city is chosen as a case study forregional metabolism analysis with the above methodologies.The thesis then developed optimization tools for the regional metabolism. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at city master plan level, an analysis tool based onMonte Carlo simulation and HSY algorithm was developed, which could identify thesensitive industry for major risk of breaking through regional resources capacity, anda proper scale of the sensitive industry could be analyzed as well. Dalian city ischosen as a case study, the sensitive industries under the regional land resourcesconstraint are identified, and their proper scales in the future are given as well. Tofulfill the optimization requirement at spatial plan level, a symbiosis potentialanalysis tool based on GIS technology is developed, by which potential linkage ofwaste recycling or energy utilization between enterprises and communities could beidentified, and an optimized plans of symbiosis network most profitable can beevaluated by CBA analysis and Integer Programming. Using this tool, the symbiosispotential of waste heat utilization is analyzed for Suzhou city as a case study.The thesis analyzed the impact of urbanization and industrialization processeson different regional substances and energy metabolism, and regional metabolismoptimization tools are developed and applied in regional metabolism controllingaffairs in Suzhou city and Dalian city.