Macroscopical Influences Of Economic Development And Climate Change On Urban Fire Spatial-temporal Variations In China

Firstly, fire (except fires of forest, grassland, Mine and army troops) spatial-temporal variations in urban area of China had been studied by exploration analysis. Then, VEC (Vector Error Correction) model was used, proved that economic development and climate change do Granger cause fire variations, concluded that the three factors have long-run equilibrium relationships, and analyzed the impulse response and contribution of economic development and climate change to fire variations. Further more, compared to the regional diversity of the fire zonings with panel data model, put forward Fire Kuznets Curve (FKC) hypothesis and confirmed it in different scales. Finally, fire assimilation effect, fire inertia effect, and fire caution effect had been studied with spatial-temporal dynamic panel data model.The article's main conclusions are listed as below:1) Chinese fire spatial distributions have obvious clustering, and fire situations have mitigated in recent years.Chinese urban fire rate enhanced up and fire spatial clustering strengthened before2002year by year. The higher fire rate units mainly distributed in East-north region, around Bohai Area, the Yangze River Delta,Xinjiang, Neimeng, Ningxia etc.; lower fire rate units mainly distributed in South of China, West-south China etc. Along with the idea of "harmonious society" and "government for the people", more attention to fire safety administration and fire investments, fire situations had mitigated and fire spatial clustering had weakened gradually after2003. The ameliorated units count up to186, distribution in East-north Region, North of China, East of China, and South of China mainly; deteriorated units count up to74, location west of Heihe-tengchong line and Shanxi, Hubei provinces mostly; fluctuated units count up to77, distribution in West-south region and other scattered zones. All of these induced that Chinese fire center of gravity moved to the West gradually.2) Economic development and climate change do cause fire variationEconomic development and climate change both are Granger cause of fire variations; and the three factors have long-run equilibrium relationships. Response sensitivity of climate factor in fires is stronger than that of economic factor in fires. The contributions of climate change to fire variations are higher than that of economic development to fire variations besides fire inertia's contribution. Humidity positive impulses have restrained effect to fires, but the impulses of economic factor in fires are different in different regions.3) Fires have obvious regional diversityThe whole nation's fire rates were downward with economic development, per capita GDP increased by1%, while fire rate reduced by0.43%. Fire rates in western regions were upward with economic development, per capita GDP increased by1%, while fire rate increased by0.16%. Other regions'fire rates were downward with economic development. The response sensitivity of economic development to fire variations in East-north region is highest, in East-south is relatively higher, in North of China and West-south region is middle, in Middle-south region is relatively lower, per capita GDP increased by1%, while fire rate reduced by1.11%,0.86%,0.69%,0.62%, and0.23%respectively.Arid climate makes fire situation worse in all regions. The response sensitivity of climate change to fire variations in West-south region is highest, in East-north and Middle-south region is middle, in East-south, north of China, and western region is relatively lower; annual average relative humidity reduced by1%, while fire rate increased by4.06%,3.62%,2.14%,1.99%,1.03%, and0.86%respectively. Where seasonal climate is changed acutely or economy is developed, where response sensitivity of climate change to fire variation is lower.The whole nation's fire situation figured as "inverted U-curve" with economic development, named as fire Kuznets curve (FKC). There are FKC in East-north region, north of China, East-south region, and West-south region, but not in Middle-south region and West region.4) Fires have significant spatial-temporal lag effects.There is significant fire assimilation effect in China. Fire situations in different regions will influence each other, and neighboring regions have similar fire trends usually; while neighboring regions'fire rate increased1%, local region's fire rate increased0.57%accordingly. Fire inertia effect has great positive influence to fire, where fire situations are serious or amelioration previous will still are serious or amelioration; while previous period's fire rate reduced1%, this period's fire rate reduced0.54%accordingly. Fire has caution effect so that neighboring regions'previous serious fire situations, especially conflagrations, will alarm the local region to strengthen fire preventions or increase safety investments; while neighboring regions previous period' fire rate increased1%, local region this period's fire rate reduced0.20%accordingly. The fire caution effect is relatively lower than fire assimilation effect and fire inertia effect.