Evaluation Studies, Based On Grid Gis Ebinur Basin Urbanization And Ecological Environment

The urbanization of human society consists of the processes of migration, landscape change and industrial agglomeration, but also of the interactions and inter-influences between the surrounding urban development and the ecological environment. With the accelerating progresses of urbanization, spillover effects of urban development continued to increase on the city and its surrounding areas, and even to deeply expand the environmental impact. The vulnerability of the ecological environment constantly increased, and many rapidly urbanizing regions showed different levels of ecological risks. In ecologically vulnerable areas, urbanization and urban development has become a major factor of environmental degradation. As a typical case of the Western Drought areas, the Ebinur Lake basin, following Xinjiang Tarim River Basin, has become the second largest area of ecological degradation. The ecological problem in the Ebinur Lake basin has affected the socio-economic sustainable development of the economic zone of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang and the Eurasian Continental Bridge.The research in this dissertation is supported by the "973" project "Ecological Environmental Evolution and Control in Western China ", selects the Ebinur Lake basin in Xinjiang as the study area. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the urbanization and ecological environment, we constructs the evaluation system of urbanization level of Ebinur Lake basin, with respect to the population urbanization, economic urbanization, urbanization and social space of four aspects of urbanization, and then construct the ecological environment evaluation system with respect to the natural ecological environment and human activities. Based on these evaluation systems we applied the GIS technology to represent the relevant criteria with spatial grids, and combine subjectively AHP scoring and objectively entropy amendment methods to determine the weights of these indicators, and then obtain preliminary results of the level of urbanization and ecological environment quality evaluation. Finally we make quantitative analysis of the relationships of urbanization and ecological environments, and proposed a hybrid approach combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the levels of urbanization and ecological environments in Ebinur Lake basin, and obtain the level of urbanization of Ebinur Lake basin and the ecological environmental quality in 2015 and 2020. On the basis of the analysis and evaluation above, we specifically forward several sustainable solutions as scientific basis for urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin, with a view to continuous improve the urbanization and ecological environment, in order to promote sustainable development. The main conclusions drawen by this research are as follows:(1) The urbanization and eco-environment strongly interacts, and the early stages of urbanization showed continued deterioration of the ecological environment. With the process with the continued urbanization, the ecological environment improves continuously; among the ecological environment factors, natural factors have higher effects than the human factors on ecological environment, but the relationships between the human the environment becomes stronger, then human activities have more impact on the ecological environment.(2) The paper apply the grid method to analyze the factors of urbanization and ecological environment and the demographic statistics, expand the application of the grid GIS.(3) Through the analysis and evaluation of the level of urbanization and eco-environment quality in1990,2000 and 2008 in Ebinur Lake basin, we find out that, the regional ecological environment was getting better, the process of urbanization accelerates, the level of urbanization improved continuously, and the ecological environment and urban development interacted and developed in phase.(4) From the spatial distribution of the level of urbanization and ecological environment quality evaluation results, there is big difference between the inside and outside of the city or urban areas, namely, urbanization within the city and the degree of coordinated development of ecological environment was significantly better than non-urban areas.(5) The paper proposed a hybrid prediction model combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin. The results showed that, in the future, the level of urbanization and the ecological environment will gradually improve, but there are significant spatial differentiations.The innovations of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Try to use the grid method to study the urbanization evaluation, compared to the traditional methods with administrative unit as the the base class, thus effectively uncover the spatial difference of the level of urbanization within the administrative unit, to better understand and analyze the development state of regional urbanization.(2) Apply the grid method to analyze the coupling relationship between urbanization and ecological environment, making the scale of further refinement in space, and the result is more realistic and operational.(3) Based on the results of urbanization and ecological environment evaluation, propose a hybrid prediction model combining cellular automata, BP neural network and agent technology to predict the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment in Ebinur Lake basin. The experimental results showed that, this method improves the prediction granularity compared to the traditional approach based on statistical data analysis with administrative units as the basis, and with higher accuracy, than simple cellular automata-based forecasting models.