Model Of Risk Evaluation And Aversion Method Of Urban Power Network Planning

City is the center of the human social, economic and cultural activities. With the acceleration of urbanization process in China, urban network is changed with the important mission of protecting the urban economic development. To speed up the development of urban power grid, it is the necessary requirement to build a socialist and harmonious society. At the same time, urban network planning project faces many problems such as long implementation cycle, many uncertainty factors, great economic and technical risk, and serious impact on the ecological environment and so on. In fact, the planning faces more and more risks. Studying on the characteristics of urban economic development, risk assessment model and aversion methods in urban network planning can be conducive to promoting the sustainable development of urban power grid construction in China. The main research objects and resuls are:Firstly, Questionnaires are designed as four phases:planning, feasibility design, construction and operation. And urban network planning risks are identified through surveying of experts and quantitative analyzed. And risk evaluation model of urban power network is established based on the fuzzy set theory. Then the key risks which should be concerned are obtained. Meanwhile, risks have been systematically identified and classified from the perspective of policy, technical, economic and management. In this foundation, risk assessment index system of urban power grid planning programs has been established. In order to identify the key sub-risk source in detail, such as power load risk source, electricity price risk and so on, the interpretative structural model has been built.The evaluation method of typical risk factors in urban power grid planning programs has been studied based on the risk assessment index system. Probability distribution analysis and risk assessment from four aspects are mainly made:load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk and reliability risk. In addition, on the basis of risk assessment of key risk source in urban power grid planning programs, two comprehensive evaluation models are put forward:the comprehensive evaluation model of planning programs risk based on matter-element and extension analysis theory and the comprehensive evaluation model of risk profit based on life-cycle benefit.This paper does also research on the method of risk aversion to ensure the scientificity and applicability of urban power grid planning from the perspective of optimization and policy assurance. In studying the risk aversion method of electricity demand uncertainty, load forecast accuracy improvement method based on the interpretative structural modeling and risk assessment has been put forward from the perspective of total forecast and spatial load forecasting accuracy improvement method based on the cellular automata and load density from the perspective of load distribution prediction. Meanwhile risk aversion method of substation site selection in urban power network, coordination risk aversion method between urban network planning with urban planning, and so on have been established. On the one hand, in order to optimize the urban power grid planning programs, this paper sets the maximum risk profit in life-cycle as target and synthetically takes account of uncertain risks such as power load uncertain risk, electricity price uncertain risk, project cost risk, reliability risk, operational cost risk, further investment cost and so on. On the other hand, this paper makes a study of coordination mechanism and risk aversion measures between the urban planning and urban power network planning by taking government policy, organization improvement and other facets into account.