Debt Risk And Performance In China

The studied object of thesis is national debt, the reason that national debt has been select as object is based upon it's important position, function and effect. The main studied content concentrates on evaluating of national risk and improving of national debt performance (including macro and micro performance). On the precondition of basically circumfused one masterstroke, which evaluating of national scale and debt risk. From the view on structure analysis, by the way of analysis on both relation of china national debt market neo-equilibrium framework and national debt raising and relation of national debt investment structure and it's performance, the thesis tries to explore the solution and measure of promoting the performance of national debt raising and upgrading the performance of national debt investment by optimizing of national debt investing structure. Concrete content has been divided into fore parts.The first part expatiates the studied background, studied ways and technique route, contemporary analyses some theory related to national debt performance such as equivalence theories and endogenetic theories. The result indicates the GDP, flux and deposit domino effect can influence aggregate demand. National debt can investment in the field of manpower capital, infrastructure and R&D to solve the exterior of manpower capital, technology and knowledge etc, in order to boost solo residue, but the point of traditional Keynes finance policy is stimulating labor supply and promoting universality matter capital formation. Moreover thesis analyses effect of the generation burden of national debt raising on civilian consumption and investment by mathematic method.The second part on the basis of comparing effect of the approach of debt raising with that of the approach of monetary raising, the thesis has studied the debt scale, endure capacity of debt risk, result of debt formation and trend comparatively, at the same time evaluated the true level and the increasing space of the national debt by researching all kinds of guideline of national debt scale and risk. The Concrete content includes four parts. In the point of theory, One is exploring how to make certain the debt scale and researching the some factors (such as GDP, fiscal income and expense, resident earning standard, saving balance, interest rate, currency supplies and national debt's yield rate etc) which influence on debt scale. And then forecasting dimensional of national debt's scale. The study indicates that monetary accommodate and prophase national circulation is most important factor. Two is to establish the synthesized evaluating system and frame of theory of evaluating debt risk, according to guideline evaluating system of national risk, and to evaluate and forecast the realistic level and trend by comparatively researching the national debt index of gross and structure from side of narrow sense and broad sense. Other part demonstration positively studies principal part, foundation stone and transfer mechanism of the broad sense national debt. And analyses the status and stability of debt all main body including the state enterprise, bank system and dormant retirement pension debt. The part point indicates the true level of broad national debt and transfer mechanism. Three research the deviation phenomena of national debt scale and fiscal share, and moderation of fiscal share. Deviation phenomena essential reflects the evolvement disciplinarian of assigned pattern. Four studies relation between national scale, debt risk and finance residual, monetary environment, and then research monetary factor contribution to debt risk debasing and national debt scale expanding. The second comes to conclusion that china national debt risk is increasing with debt circulation. In view of collectivity status, national debt exists certain expanding space, narrow sense national debt risk basically maintain the acceptable standard, but broad sense national debt risk exists fatalness, which is key factor affect the debt stability.The third part on the base...