The Study Of Theory And Simulation Of The Economy And Management Complex Adaptive System

Although the main methods of study of economy and management system use for reference of some theory and method of complexity science, such as chaos, fractal, self-organization etc, they don't break away from the traditional mode that studies the economy and management system by analysis the time series. The intention of this paper is to establish the Economy and Management Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS) theory by using the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) theory in study of the economy and management system, it is a complexity theory fit for the economy and management system. The main content of this paper have four parts: The first two sections is the summary of this paper, the complexity and complex system theory was summarized and remarked, the study background and method were also expounded. The third section is the emphasis of this paper, in this section, the CAS theory was discussed in detail, and the complexity of economy and management system was also analyzed. The concept of EMCAS was put forward, and the model of the complex person agent (CPA) was established that fit to describe human being agent. The more work was to study learning and rule discovery theory of agent by applying the improved Michigan method, and to analyze the method of agents how to gain the knowledge belief in the multi-agent environment in virtue of the multi-person game theory, as well as study the game tree structure of the agent's Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) model and agent how to decide. The forth section and the fifth section mainly studied application of the EMCAS theory, and the emphasis was to discuss the structure and model-building of the simulation platform of CAS SWARM and its application in the simulation of the international crude market. The sixth section summarized and prospected this issue of this paper. This paper established the simulation model of international crude market by the EMCAS theory, and simulated this model on the SWARM platform. Result of this experimentation showed that the EMCAS theory and method can realize the simulation of the human being and organization in the economy and management system on the whole, and this issue reached favorable effect.