Information Structure, Institutional Changes And Financial Risk Evolution

The dissertation is a theoretical study on Risks and Financial Risks based upon Evolutionary Economics and Information Paradigm. In the dissertation, the author firstly gave a systematical retrospect on two heterodox paradigms which are very promising to challenge the mainstream Neo-classical Paradigm, namely, Darwin-Veblen Paradigm describing cumulative and massive evolutions of society, and Information Paradigm describing the nuances amongst microstructures. Secondly, the author went on from the start-point where Information Space Theory (Boisot, 1995) stopped, explored the possibility of the establishment of a brand-new framework embracing the two paradigms, which could give a solid foundation to models of institution expansion and institution evolution, and the author did build two such models, not through constructive methods, but through simulative methods, thus, the modeling crisis of Institutional Economics was solved, or at least released. With an economic history view, the author probed the informational and institutional contains of the concepts of Risk and Financial Risk, and so brought the new framework into the study of Risk. After some laborious analyses, the author built a logic process among information, institution, risk and financial risk. After satisfying himself with such abstract framework establishment, the author turned his attention to some more realistic domains. He then started his research on China's economic structure and financial structure. He again gave an economic historical study on the process of China's economic organization evolution and the influences of such process on financial factors, pointing out that the path dependence effect was the most powerful factor to determine the characteristics of financial structure's status quo. The author went on examine two special types of financial risk, which are the most urgent ones in China today, namely, Commercial Banking systematicalrisk and Stock Market systematical risk. After some intellectual efforts the author drew conclusions as followed: these two types of risk were process the same essence that they were both rooted in the macro structure and circumstances, though they showed quite different characteristics, and they were both the products of the diachronic (over a fairly long period) evolution of economic structure. At last, the author discussed the approach of releasing the two types of risk, pointing out that it must be the only outlet to breaking the path dependence effect and pushing the institutional bifurcation.The innovativeness of the dissertation was manifested in the following facets: first, the two heterodox paradigms were concluded after a thorough and systematical retrospect; second, a brand-new framework was established by embracing the two paradigms; third, the concepts of risk and financial risk, especially their information and institutional contains, were expatiated under the framework; fourth, the characteristics of China's economic structure and financial structure and their theoretical meanings were well concluded; fifth, the Commercial Banking systematical risk and the Stock Market systematical risk of China were well explored and explained, and some solutions were reached.