Banking Crisis:Analysis From The View Of Financial Bubbles

From the 1980's of last century, the bank in the world developed very fast with the increasing scale and expanding function. At the same time, the bank of the world went into a stage characteristic of more crises. Financial crises broke out in the western countries in 1982, then in Mexico in 1994, then in the East-South Asia in 1997, then in Russia in 1998, then in Brazil in 1999 and in Argentine in 2001 respectively. However, the bank is the very important to the financial system of every country. Therefore, during the crises, the bank couldn't be avoided. This paper studies the banking crises under this background.The reason for banking crises of developing countries and developed countries has the same character. To a great degree, the banking crises broke out because the bubbles of asset burst. That bubbles burst leads to much bad asset. From the view of mechanism of banking crises, the process of it can be divided as follows:Firstly, the loan scale of banking expands and a lot of capital swarm into securities market. And the expansion of loan is concomitant with the expansion of monetary.Then the securities will rise up fast because of the character of securities market. Thus leads to bubbles. Therefore, that will produce a circle of the loan expansion and bubbles. The system of bank will be more fragile.Finally, the bubbles will break. And that will result that the banking has much bad assets and leads to the banking crises.This paper can be divided into 7 chapters. Chapter one mainly introduces the background, means and idea of research. Also, the definitions of bubbles and banking crises are supplied. On the basis of previous research, this paper also supplies the definition of bubbles. Bubbles are that the prices deviate from the internal value unstably. That the prices in the rise lead to positive bubbles and in the decline lead to negative bubbles during the deviation from the value. The definition of banking crises is difficult as the same as bubbles. At present, the standard of banking crises replaces the definition. Banking crises is that burst of bubbles results into a lot of bad assets of banking and the payment crises of banking. Banking crises and banking failure have intimate relation. They can be distinguished in quantity. Banking failure is the predetermining condition.Chapter two mainly analyzes the bubbles theory. In this chapter, the definition of internal value of securities is supplied firstly. Because the bubbles is deviation of the value, the definition of internal value very important. Then the chapter analyzes the model of rational bubbles. The presentation of model of rational bubbles is a leap of theoretic research. This model analyzes the existence of bubbles and different kinds ofbubbles with the Martingale. Then the chapter analyzes the relationship between bubbles and dynamic efficiency. Then the chapter introduce DSSW model. The DSSW model also analyzes bubbles. But it analyzes the irrational bubbles different from the model of rational bubbles. And the DSSW model analyzes the existence with the confidence risk of investors. Then the chapter analyzes the factors of bubbles in the macro and micro aspects. Finally, the chapter introduces the ways of test of bubbles.Chapter three mainly analyzes the fragility of banking system. The fragility of banking system is the predetermining condition of banking crises. In comparable with other kinds of enterprises, the banking has the character of high debt. This character results that the bank can keep continuously under the two predetermining conditions as follows: firstly, the depositors don't cash in their deposits at the same time; secondly, the bank must reclaims the loans efficiently. The two conditions decide on the fragility of banking. The banking fragility is the situation of high risk. Then the chapter analyzes the relationship between internal defect of banking and the fragility. Then the chapter analyzes the fragility theory. The theory is inclusive of Fisher theory, Keyns theory and Minsky theory to a great degre...