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Study On Options Theory And Its Application In The Management Of The Petroleum Enterprise

Posted on:2005-06-05Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y CaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360125452397Subject:Oil and gas field development project
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Options theory is a hot point in the external study field, few related systematic study in the internal petroleum enterprise, was reported. Considered the practical risk problems of management, investment decision and human resource management exited in the petroleum enterprise, the application of options theory in the management of the petroleum enterprise was studied deeply in this paper. The solutions of the risk problems of the petroleum enterprise were put forward based on the study.The feasibility and necessary of renewing petroleum futures markets and building up options markets which got along with international petroleum markets was studied deeply, according to the study the industry-financial management pattern which applied financial derivatives to the risk management of the modern petroleum enterprise was put forward. It was considered fully that financial derivatives tools had great flexibility and maneuverability in the risk management of price, in order to reduce the management risk to the least the hedge of financial derivatives should be used sufficiently. With the developing of Chinese petroleum industry and the continuous deepgoing of markets and the demonstrations of international petroleum futures and domestic futures trade, options has the asymmetry characteristic between risk and gains, the thought which should build up petroleum options markets quickly based on the establishment of petroleum futures markets was put forward.Because of the shortage of the current investment decision methods, on the basis of fully considering three factors, that is, management flexibility, strategic flexibility and competition which influence the investment decision, the method tree of the investment decision analysis which considered real options was summarized for the first time in this paper. Real options method was introduced to the petroleum exploration and development sphere in this paper, based on the characteristic of the petroleum industry, for example the time lag and multi-stage investment, compound real options model, which was more suitable for the situation of petroleum exploration and development, was suggested. Investment decision and evaluation methods in the petroleum industry were developed and enriched further.Using real options theory, the idea of building up the flexible decision mechanism in the petroleum enterprise was put forward. It was considered that as the economic background changed, the possible profit and loss of the exploration and development projects should be valued again and the deploying of exploration and development should be adjusted, the uncertainty of market can be used flexibly, without lossing the possible chance of gaining profit, while the risk could be controlled to a great extent. When considering the deferral options in the investment project of the petroleum development, investment decision of the development project changes from "developing now or not" to "exercising the options now or holding", the value of real options among the project is the decision keystone, the optimal time to investment also can be decided, this can solve the investment decision problem properly.Drawing on the results and experience of the foreign options stimulation mechanism and combining the practice of Chinese petroleum enterprise, the suggestion that key technical talent should be included in the stimulation scope was put forward. It was considered that in order to stimulate, attract and stabilize the talent efficiently for a long time, it was important to build up a good stimulation and restriction mechanism. It is necessary to introduce the options stimulation mechanism to improve further the current stimulation mechanism of the petroleum enterprise, and when choosing the stimulation object, besides the managers others should be considered, a diversification stimulation system should be established.The application effect of real options was evaluated for the first time during the determination of selective criterion about the mutually exclusive projects. It was validat...
Keywords/Search Tags:petroleum enterprise, risk management, options theory, hedge, real options, uncertainty, investment decision, stimulation mechanism
PDF Full Text Request
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