The Study Of Investment Decision On High-Technology Project Based On Real Options

The creative and uncertain investment decisions of high technology project need flexible decision-making tactic. But the traditional approaches for investment decisions have obvious weakness in the world of high technology preject, neglecting the opportunity value of the project and underpricing the project value. In reference to the option pricing model which obtaining the Nobel Prize, the thesis provides an approach based on real options to solve the problem such as uncertainty in high technology project investment. Extend the space of decision makers and survey the high technology value of operation flexibility and investment opportunity with the option thinking "right without duty".After analysis the driving forces of high technology project investment decision and the magnifying of uncertainty in it, the thesis tries to establish an investment decision system for high technology based on real options, which formed regonition frame, evaluation frame and execution frame. Detailly deploy the specific content and implementing methods in all of the frames. Focus on the characteristics of high technology, adjusting the uncertain factor a with fuzzy comprehensive judgment approach in B-S Pricing Model. Based on Binomial Option Pricing Model, extend and form the deferral options model, expanded options model, contracted options model and abandonment options model which can solve the specific conditions of high technology project investment. Deepen the theory study and actual application of real options.