Research Of Tianjin City Water Supply Forecasting And Water Resource Capitalization Management

With the development of the economy, the scale of the cities and industry production become larger and larger, which deteriorates the contradiction of the city water supply system. Forecasting the city water supply amount is not only the reliable gist of the distributing the existing water resource, new founded the waterworks and enlarged the waterworks, but the foundation of the city water supply system attempering. Looking for the law of city water supply amount and forecasting the water supply amount not only can guide civicism construction and civicism management, but also are related to resident living.This thesis looked the city living water amount as the nonlinear function of the city water population, the income per people per year and living water price and the city industry water amount as the nonlinear function of the city gross domestic production and industry water price. And Tianjin water population and gross domestic production were forecasted with bifurcation theory and chaos theory and living water price and industry water price was forecasted with gray theory and the income per people per year were forecasted with neural network. The comparative result showed that the forecasting error and precision of the method this thesis adopted were little and this method was adapt to forecast the city middle-long term water supply amount.Water resources capitalization management was proposed in this thesis and water resources should be managed as a resource. And then, the concept of water resources capitalization management is proposed. The characteristic,necessity,feasibility of water resources capitalization management are analyzed in detail. And the method of water resources accounting was given in this thesis.The challenge and chance that the water supply service vocation faced after our country entered WTO and the problems that existed in the Tianjin water supply vocation were analyzed and the measures was proposed in this thesis.