Gray Prediction And Evaluation Methods And Applied Research

The study of social and economic system needs the support of forecasting theory. We can create the quantitive model, which reflects the law of system development, through the analysis of historical data, so that we can supply the powerful tool to analyze system characters and developing trend.This paper firstly introduces the primary contents of forecasting, summarizes common forecasting methods and means of both quality and quantity, discusses the theoretical and practical research evolvement of grey forecasting and evaluating, analyzes the pretreatment of fundamental data sequence according to the primary procedure of forecasting, specifies the contents of grey forecasting and evaluating theory, and then carries into execution the application research on the base of the science and technology index data of Jiangsu province.This paper presents the following innovation:l.this paper analyzes the common sequence operators, examines the processing effect of each operator, and points out the difference of smoothness effect among these operators.2.this paper introduces the contents of grey forecasting system, emphasizes the idea, contents, types and actual operational process of GM(1,1) model, and provides a new means to improve precision of GM(1,1) model by the means of rebuilding the first item of sequence.In addition, this paper constructs two grey relation model: GRM(1,1) and GRM(l,n), which can reflect the interaction among system factors, and presents the detailed process.3.On the base of grey fixed weight clustering model, this paper transfers the absolute partition into relative partition of grey class ,therefore creates the grey clustering model of time sequence, so that the model can solve the application of grey clustering model in the sequence data and broads the field of grey clustering model.4.this paper analyzes the internal factors of input, conversion and output of science and technology system and establishes the excellent index system to evaluate science and technology strength. On the base of so, this paper puts into effect the grey forecasting, grey relation forecasting and grey clustering evaluating according to the data of Jiangsu province , gives the detailed forecasting values and evaluating analysis, and then presents the science and technology competition strategy of Jiangsu province.