Empirical Study On The China's Agricultural Products Trade Pattern

With the development of economic globalization and regional integration, the economic relationship including agricultural products trade (APT) among countries or areas is becoming increasely closer. Meanwhile, the change of the world market greatly affects the development of agricultural industry and products trade of every country.This paper principally aims to research the general regularity of the world APT pattern changing and the feature of China's trade flow. On this base, principally analyzing factors of affecting China's agricultural products export in order to learn about the international experience and make it clear of the vantages of China's agricultural products trade.In the first part of the thesis, the products range and categories involved in the international trade are defined and different statistic scales are unified. Meanwhile, all of agricultural products are sorted into 19 kinds under the same criterion. In this way, the puzzle of agricultural products scale and the problem of the statistical consistency during the procedure of time series analysis are resolved.The study on the international agricultural products trade pattern is carried out according to the integral and categories respectively. Time series analysis as a main method is applied to analyze the historical development of the world agricultural products trade pattern including markets structure, products structure and areas trade. Furthermore, some important areas and products sorted by the trade quantity are analyzed closely in this paper. In the same way, China's agricultural products trade flow characters are researched and match with the universal regularity of other countries in the world. To explore and verify the features of China's APT pattern is an important part in this paper. Therefore, the constant market-share model (CMS) is applied to analyze the influence upon China's APT pattern arosed by agricultural products competitiveness, imported quantity of other countries and so on. On this base, the degree of the mainly factors affect area trade pattern is further verified. Meanwhile, the gravity model is applied to proof the influence of the distance on China's agricultural products trade pattern.At last, the ways on selective basis are analysed and put forward to improve China's APT pattern.Data analysis and international comparison are extensively exploited in this paper. Through observing the general law of the world, the research draws the conclusion of the feature and influence factors of China's APT pattern.